Iran responded to the US-Israeli strikes by launching missiles at targets in six Gulf states - and in doing so may have destroyed its last remaining diplomatic relationships in the region, historian Niall Ferguson assessed.
Analyzing the unfolding operation for The Free Press, in an interview covered by "Hvylya", Ferguson said Tehran's retaliation was "remarkable" for two reasons. First, most of the missiles were intercepted and caused little damage. Second, Iran targeted countries that had explicitly declared neutrality. "Most of the Gulf states - Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar - do not want to be involved in this conflict," he noted. "Well, that's out the window."
Ferguson pointed to Saudi Arabia's official statement as evidence of the diplomatic fallout. The Gulf Arabs, he said, are "disgusted to find themselves under attack from Tehran." By striking neutral neighbors, Iran accomplished something the US and Israel could not: turning the entire region against it. "The Iranians are doing their level best to lose friends and alienate people," Ferguson said. Reports of explosions in Dubai and Abu Dhabi underscored the scale of Tehran's reckless response.
Among the confirmed targets was the US naval base in Bahrain - an attack Ferguson said Washington certainly anticipated. He noted there were no early reports of strikes on oil infrastructure, though he would be "surprised if the Iranians didn't try." The most consequential Iranian move would be an attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz and disrupt global oil flows, but no evidence of such an attempt had emerged in the early hours of the operation. Markets reacted immediately - crypto prices plunged sharply as traders priced in escalation risk.
For Ferguson, the chaotic retaliation spoke to something deeper. "Whatever else is happening, we can see a certain desperation in the Iranian regime's response," he said. Rather than a calculated military strategy, Iran's missile barrage looked like a regime lashing out in panic - further undermining its position both militarily and diplomatically.
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