While the world watches the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, the real danger is building in the Pacific, historian Niall Ferguson warned. China is preparing to make a move against Taiwan - and America's Middle Eastern entanglement is giving Beijing exactly the opening it needs.

In an interview with The Free Press, covered by "Hvylya", Ferguson said this is the scenario keeping America's military leadership up at night. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dan Caine has already complained that the administration's focus on the Western Hemisphere "understated the threat posed by China." Ferguson agreed: "He's right, because China is the one real rival that the United States needs to fear."

The numbers back up the alarm. China has built a navy that in terms of vessels matches or exceeds the US fleet. It possesses missiles capable of sinking American aircraft carriers, destroying satellite communications, and hitting bases in Guam with hypersonic weapons. "China is a far, far bigger threat to the United States than Iran or Russia, much less Venezuela," Ferguson said. The CIA has already briefed major tech companies on a potential 2027 Chinese invasion scenario.

Ferguson recalled that former CIA director Bill Burns revealed Xi Jinping had instructed China's military to be ready for war by 2027. "Reminder: that's next year," the historian noted. He described the biggest risk not as regional chaos in the Middle East, but as a global miscalculation: "Our attention is once again focused on the Middle East, as it has been so often in our lifetimes, and that is going to create an opportunity - perhaps not this year but perhaps next year - for Xi Jinping to make a move against Taiwan." Former Secretary of State Pompeo has gone further, arguing that Russia has effectively become a vassal state of Beijing.

Such a move, Ferguson warned, "would be enormously consequential for the global balance of power" - far exceeding anything happening in Iran or Ukraine.

Also read: Sullivan and McMaster: China Will Give Trump a "Deal" - but Take Taiwan in Return