Washington is "rapidly bleeding leverage" over Russia due to its own strategic errors - severing support to Ukraine, undermining allied trust, and making clear it will avoid applying any serious pressure on the Kremlin, concluded Dr Jack Watling, an analyst at RUSI.
As "Hvylya" reports, citing a RUSI commentary published ahead of the fifth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion, the US has not only halted meaningful military assistance to Kyiv but is also obstructing European purchases of American weapons through the PURL framework.
The White House has made clear that it "will avoid applying any serious pressure on Russia." Yet at the same time, Washington wants to accelerate the end of the conflict.
But having "severed most support to Ukraine, undermined the trust of its allies," the US finds its ability to influence the outcome shrinking fast. The contradiction is stark: Washington has deprived itself of the tools needed to broker a durable settlement.
Watling warned that even if a US-imposed deal materialises, "the durability of any subsequent peace is doubtful." Washington has effectively created a situation in which it can neither compel Russia to make concessions nor guarantee Ukraine's security.