The US-Israeli military operation against Iran is about far more than Tehran's nuclear program, historian Niall Ferguson argued. The real audience for Operation Epic Fury sits in Moscow and Beijing.
Speaking with The Free Press in an interview published by "Hvylya", Ferguson said the strikes carry an unmistakable global message: "The United States is sending a global signal. It sent it to the Venezuelans, it's sending it to the Iranians, but the real recipients are in Moscow and Beijing. The message is: do not mess with the United States."
According to Ferguson, Washington desperately needed to rebuild its credibility as a superpower "you don't mess with." He pointed to the erosion of American deterrence under Presidents Obama and Biden, arguing that restoring that reputation "can save many American lives in the future." The US has "overwhelming military superiority, full spectrum dominance, and it will come for you if you cross its red lines," he said. Early reports confirmed that strikes destroyed Khamenei's palace along with other key targets.
Ferguson noted that President Trump framed the operation as a preemptive strike to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and the missiles to deliver them - potentially against European targets as well as regional ones. But the underlying calculus is broader: after half a century of Iranian hostility toward Americans, sponsorship of terrorism, and the regime's massacre of nearly 40,000 of its own citizens in early January 2026 while crushing protests, Trump "called time on it." Notably, both McMaster and Sullivan had anticipated strikes on Iran even before the operation was launched.
The historian cautioned, however, that signaling strength in one theater creates vulnerabilities in others. China - "by far the most powerful" member of the authoritarian axis that includes Russia, Iran, and North Korea - is watching closely. And while Washington flexes its muscle over Tehran, Beijing continues preparing for a potential move against Taiwan.
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