Historian Niall Ferguson described America's strategic dilemma as "the three-body problem" - three parts of the world that constantly pull Washington in different directions: Europe, the Middle East, and the Far East. In his assessment, the joint US-Israeli operation against Iran, launched on February 28, makes it significantly harder for the United States to stay engaged on Ukraine.

In an interview with The Free Press, published by "Hvylya", Ferguson laid out the core problem: "There is Europe, where a war is raging in Ukraine, the outcome of which we do not know and the end of which is not yet in sight. There's the Middle East itself. And there's the Far East."

Ferguson stressed that the United States, despite its dominant military position, has finite resources and attention. Playing successfully in all three theaters at the same time is "very, very hard," he said - and simultaneous crises in Europe, the Middle East, and the Far East would be impossible to handle. "Everybody knows this," he added. RUSI analysts have similarly warned that Washington is rapidly bleeding leverage by overextending its strategic commitments.

The historian acknowledged that Operation Epic Fury carries a broader strategic logic: Washington is sending a signal to Moscow and Beijing that crossing American red lines will have consequences. But the immediate effect is that US military assets and political focus are now consumed by Iran, while the war in Ukraine grinds on without a clear endgame. As Michael Kofman has argued, the US faces an inherent contradiction between leaving Europe and guaranteeing Ukraine's security.

Ferguson also warned that the biggest beneficiary of America's Middle Eastern entanglement is China, which he called "the one real rival that the United States needs to fear." Beijing has built a navy matching the US fleet in size and possesses hypersonic missiles capable of striking American carriers and bases in the Pacific. While Washington is preoccupied with Tehran, Xi Jinping is preparing to move on Taiwan - possibly as early as 2027.

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