Political analyst Yuriy Romanenko, analyzing the readiness of Western partners for a prolonged confrontation with Russia, has drawn attention to alarming signals emerging from Germany. According to the expert, statements by German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius regarding the state of the Bundeswehr's arsenals indicate a deep European security crisis that has been ignored for years.
"German Defense Minister Pistorius and several Bundeswehr analysts have started saying directly: guys, our arsenals aren't just empty; they’ve hit rock bottom. When we hear that 'Europe must shift to a war footing,' we need to understand the scale of the catastrophe they find themselves in after thirty years of a comfortable, quiet life," Romanenko noted.
The expert highlighted the massive gap between European production rates and the realities of high-intensity combat in Ukraine, where a year's worth of supplies from leading EU nations can be spent in just a few days.
"What were they thinking? That a major war in Europe was impossible... And now it turns out that in a week of fighting near Avdiivka or Bakhmut, as many shells are fired as the entire industry of France or Germany produces in a year. Pistorius says: 'We need 5-8 years to restore our potential.' Five to eight years! Do we have those years? Does Ukraine have that time while they slowly build their factories?" the analyst asked.
Romanenko also compared the situation with Russia, which has already shifted its economy to a military footing. Despite corruption and technical backwardness, the enemy demonstrates a capacity for long-term planning, while Europe remains a hostage to electoral cycles.
"Their planning horizon spans years. In Europe, it’s from election to election. This raises a logical question: is this part of some 'grand game'? Is Ukraine being used as a massive disposal unit for Russian military potential while the West slowly, with a creak, begins to restart its own machine?" the expert suggested.
He urged Ukrainians to shed illusions regarding the "selfless" nature of partner aid, emphasizing the harsh pragmatism of global politics.
"Is it cynical? Yes. Is it cruel toward us? Absolutely. But in geopolitics, there is no concept of 'justice'—there is only 'expediency.' If it is expedient for them that we hold the front for another year or two at the cost of colossal efforts while Rheinmetall launches new production lines, they will do exactly that. Partners will never abandon us—and I always add: they won’t abandon us as long as we perform a function that is beneficial to them," Romanenko stated.
According to the analyst, Ukraine must immediately overcome the internal infantilism and bureaucracy hindering the development of its own defense sector.
"When they tell us 'we will give you a million shells' and only 300,000 actually arrive, that’s not just a calculation error. It’s a reflection of the actual impotence of the European military-industrial complex at this stage. Believing that 'everything will end tomorrow' because someone in Washington or Brussels promised so is the height of infantilism. We are entering a period of very long, exhausting struggle where the winner won't be the one who shouts loudest about victory, but the one with stronger nerves and better-oiled logistics," Yuriy Romanenko concluded.