Geopolitical Futures founder George Friedman declared that in the standoff between the US and Europe over the future of the transatlantic alliance, the trump card belongs to the Americans. The reason is simple: the US can leave, but the Europeans cannot.
Friedman offered this assessment on the Geopolitical Futures podcast following the Munich Security Conference, "Hvylya" reports.
The analyst compared transatlantic relations to a bad marriage. "For a while it was good, but as you grew up, problems appeared. One wants to stay married - 'you're obligated.' The other wants a divorce. Not a complete one though - 'we'll remain good parents to the children,'" he described the situation.
According to Friedman, both sides feel betrayed. Europeans believe the US has a moral obligation to remain their security guarantor. Americans are convinced Europe exploited them for 80 years instead of becoming an equal partner. The Munich Security Report 2026 confirmed this deepening transatlantic rift. "Neither the European demands are baseless, nor the American refusal is baseless. That's how we live," he stated.
"Ultimately the trump card is with the Americans - because they can leave. They have a choice. The Europeans can't leave. They are here," the analyst concluded. Friedman also recently dismissed the "middle powers" alliance concept as unable to counterbalance US dominance.