The US and EU are now "diametrically opposed in their objectives" on Russia: Washington wants a quick ceasefire to pave the way for renewed economic engagement with Moscow, while Europe views lifting sanctions as "highly dangerous," according to Dr Jack Watling, an analyst at RUSI.
As "Hvylya" reports, citing an analytical commentary by RUSI, the key factor is the scale of Russian defence spending - approximately $500 billion a year when measured by purchasing power parity - with little prospect of it shrinking even in the event of a ceasefire.
For Europe, which is still ramping up rearmament, a sudden ceasefire on unfavourable terms would "expose the continent to grave risks." Many European states fear that removing sanctions under these circumstances would effectively give Moscow a free hand.
Complicating the situation further, European unity is "under sustained attack from Russian subversion." The Kremlin is exploiting the flow of Ukrainian refugees to stoke hostility in Europe, "playing on European concerns about economic migration," while trying to distract from military-technical assistance to Ukraine.
Watling identified three tracks of policy for Europe: aggressive countering of Russian subversion, sustained supply of arms to the Ukrainian military, and an active policy of imposing costs on Russia. Kyiv is already acting on the third track, having recently imposed new sanctions targeting Russia's shadow fleet.
See also Friedman's take on why "Trump is unpleasant, but Europeans are no better."