China's debt buildup between 2019 and 2023 exceeded what Britain accumulated at the height of World War II - and the total has now surpassed every developed nation except Japan, geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan told the Superpowers podcast. He gave the system "single-digit years" before demographic collapse makes it unmanageable.
As "Hvylya" reports, Zeihan painted a grim picture of Chinese economic data. Beijing has "essentially executed their way through their statistical system - very little comes out anymore." The last credible figures, from 2023, showed corporate debt at around 300% of GDP. In China's state-led system, the line between local, federal, and corporate debt is blurry: formally there is no national debt, but state-owned companies owe 300% of GDP, and local governments likely add another 50-80%.
"In China, we're looking at one of history's fastest-building debt bombs - the largest accumulation of debt in absolute and relative terms in human history," Zeihan said. "And some people think since there's no more data, the problem has gone away. Unrealistic."
The analyst drew a sharp contrast with Japan, which has its own massive debt problem - over 500% of GDP including all obligations - but benefits from a first-world economy, a high-value-added industrial base, and the fact that nearly all its debt is domestically held. Japan's debt is ultimately a political question, not a financial one. China enjoys no such advantages.
What makes China's situation particularly dangerous, Zeihan argued, is the demographic crunch approaching on the same timeline. The developing world is aging much faster than the developed world ever did, "with China at the lead, to the point of potential national dissolution." The only silver lining: the debt is mostly domestic. "And anyone who's been buying Chinese debt these last five years deserves to lose everything," he added. Zeihan has separately warned that the global order is fragmenting as traditional alliances and economic systems buckle under demographic and political strain.