Russia's shadow fleet of oil tankers - the lifeline keeping the Kremlin's war machine funded - could be dismantled in just two to three months if Europeans joined the effort, geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan told the Superpowers podcast in an interview published by Hvylya. The result would be catastrophic for Moscow: a loss of roughly three-quarters of its export income in a very short period.
As "Hvylya" reports, Zeihan pointed to recent moves by the Trump administration, which seized eight shadow fleet vessels as part of a post-Venezuelan cleanup operation. Other countries are following suit: France temporarily detained one vessel, and India - in what Zeihan called "a real shock" - detained three. The shadow fleet is already faltering as major buyers shift to legal crude, with Indian imports of Russian oil dropping sharply.
"If the shadow fleet is dismantled - which would only take two to three months with the Europeans on board, easier said than done - then the Russians would lose three-quarters of their export income in a very short period," Zeihan said. Without that revenue, Moscow would face a fundamentally different economic reality: continuing the war would require redirecting funds from other sources, generating severe internal stress.
The analyst framed this as the most realistic path to pressuring Russia - more effective than either military contributions to Ukraine or sustained diplomacy. "Barring a new breakthrough in military technology, which doesn't appear imminent - yes, probably," Zeihan replied when asked whether economic pressure was the key lever. He noted that the US has exhausted all stored weapons systems and now only has equipment in active use, while training Ukrainians on those systems would take too long to matter. Russian oil output has already been shrinking as US pressure forces key buyers to pull back.
From an innovation standpoint, the ball is in Ukraine's court. From a financial standpoint, it is up to the Europeans. "And for all of us, it's a question of how to get the next incremental shipment of shells, artillery, or drones in on time. That doesn't argue for any breakthroughs," Zeihan concluded.