Russia will continue its war in Ukraine until it literally runs out of fighting-age men - roughly another five to six years, according to geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan. In an extensive interview on the Superpowers podcast, recorded just before the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion, Zeihan argued that Moscow views this conflict as existential and will accept enormous losses rather than settle for a peace that delivers none of the strategic gains it sought.
As "Hvylya" reports, Zeihan told former UK Armed Forces Minister James Heappey that Russia's strategic calculus has not changed in centuries. "Russia has been invaded dozens of times in its history, and the corridor where invasion has always been most likely takes you right through Ukraine," he said. From Moscow's perspective, any peace deal now would mean paying the price of a major war with none of the benefits.
"This was always going to happen. This was always going to happen about right now. And it was always going to be the last great war that Russia fought," Zeihan said. "They will push until they run out of men. Based on the Russian birth rate, that's about another five or six years."
The analyst acknowledged that virtually every expert who predicted this war - including himself - has been wrong about its trajectory multiple times. The combination of a shifting geopolitical landscape in Europe and the US, alongside a technological revolution in warfare, has made forecasting extraordinarily difficult. Yet the front line, he argued, will remain "very dynamic, yet static" - the Ukrainians consistently outperform in innovation but lack the manpower to exploit breakthroughs. As we previously reported, surging Russian casualties are already stalling Putin's hopes for a major breakthrough.
Asked whether Russia's finances might crack sooner than its demographics, Zeihan was skeptical. The idea that the Russian people must suffer for the country's survival "is not that far a reach for the Putin government," he noted. The only scenario for an earlier economic collapse, he added, would require dismantling Russia's shadow oil fleet - a prospect he addressed separately in the interview. Meanwhile, Zelensky has accepted a US proposal for a new round of peace talks, though Zeihan sees little chance of a settlement either side would accept.