Eighty percent of casualties in the Ukraine war are now caused by drones - and Russia has zero ability to manufacture them domestically, geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan told the Superpowers podcast. This dependency on Chinese-made drones represents one of the Kremlin's most critical vulnerabilities.
As "Hvylya" reports, Zeihan explained that Russia's entire drone supply chain runs through China. "We're in a conflict where 80% of the casualties are drone-driven, and the Russians have zero ability to manufacture their own drones," he said. If Russia's export income were cut off, it would need to generate hard currency from entirely domestic capacity to pay China for drone production - a shift that "may generate enough internal dissent to break the system."
The technological dependence creates a strategic paradox: the weapon system dominating the modern battlefield is one Russia cannot produce. Meanwhile, Ukraine has been at the forefront of drone innovation, with 550 new types of UAVs approved for military use in 2025 alone. Recently, Ukrainian forces demonstrated the ability to cut Russian communications across the entire front line. "As we've seen in just the last several days, the Russians have lost all communications along their entire front line, which has allowed the Ukrainians to go on the offensive," Zeihan noted.
The innovation gap, however, does not translate into a decisive Ukrainian advantage. "This is a very dynamic environment where whenever there is a change, the Ukrainians generally have the upper hand. They just don't have the people to take advantage of that," Zeihan said. Ukraine is also developing new air defense technologies, including laser systems and interceptor drones, to reduce reliance on Western aid.
The only realistic path to leveraging Russia's drone dependency, according to Zeihan, is economic: dismantling the shadow oil fleet that funds Russian imports from China. Without export revenue, Russia would face a choice between funding the war and maintaining domestic stability - a dilemma that could eventually crack the system from within.