Is Ukraine threatened by an internal split due to rising social tension and the harsh actions of Territorial Recruitment Centers (TRC)? What unknown obligations did Kyiv undertake on the eve of the full-scale invasion? And why is it time for citizens to stop believing the optimistic forecasts of officials and start developing their own survival strategies? These sharp questions were raised by political expert Yuriy Romanenko during a live broadcast with his audience.
Answering questions from the public, the analyst touched on topics that usually remain outside the official information agenda, frankly assessing the risks of a social explosion and the limits of Ukrainians' patience regarding incompetent government decisions.
One of the unexpected insights of the broadcast was the mention of back-door diplomacy by Ukraine's leadership immediately before February 24, 2022. Commenting on whether Volodymyr Zelensky tried to reach an agreement with the Russians before the war, Romanenko hinted at the existence of agreements unknown to the general public.
"He tried; he went to Paris, and they even agreed on something there, and obligations were even taken. I understand that this will be another story that you will later learn about from the news," the political expert remarked, predicting new high-profile revelations in the media.
Assessing the risk of social tension escalating into civil conflict against the backdrop of historical parallels, Yuriy Romanenko noted that a worst-case scenario can still be avoided. The main reason is the absence of organized political or paramilitary groups capable of leading such a confrontation. Nevertheless, he argued that the sparks of a future fire can no longer be ignored.
"I don't know—that is, it seems to me that it can still be avoided because the subjects of a civil war have not yet fully formed... there must always be subjects possessing resources and appropriate social organization. At the moment, this does not exist," the analyst explained.
At the same time, he emphasized that fundamental social fractures are already making themselves felt daily, especially in the context of mobilization.
"But there are basic contradictions that we see manifesting in various forms. Starting from all these conflicts with the TRC, which are increasing every day," Romanenko stated.
The expert also reacted to statements by officials—specifically former Minister Dmytro Kuleba—claiming the war will definitely end this year. Romanenko urged Ukrainians to think pragmatically and not rely on blind faith.
Instead, he openly shared his own position regarding actions in the event of a prolonged conflict: "Look, I simply proceed from the fact that you should not be in a matter of faith, but in the matter of how you respond to the difficulties that will grow. You must have a set of your own strategies... I have a strategy: if I see that the war continues beyond this summer, I turn on 'Plan B,' my family plan. And we begin to act based on these plans."
The analyst harshly criticized government initiatives in the humanitarian sphere, such as higher education reforms involving the shortening of bachelor's programs, calling it a disconnect from the real needs of a society at war. According to him, such steps force the active part of the population to seek paths for emigration.
"Because there is, I think, a limit to tolerating state stupidity. And I think there is no point in bearing the costs for this stupidity... Who the hell needs this? What children will be interested in this? In general, what children will stay here with such an approach? None. People will simply pack their bags, everyone who can... will take their children out and leave themselves," the expert concluded emotionally.
In the finale of this segment, Romanenko gave tough but pragmatic advice to all Ukrainians: "Because no matter what the Kulebas say... just prepare 'Plan B' and that's it."