The deal Washington is offering Ukraine is "a bad offer" because it requires Kyiv to evacuate the territory that comprises its defensive belt in exchange for security guarantees whose credibility has been shattered by the US itself, according to Dr Jack Watling, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).
As "Hvylya" reports, citing a RUSI commentary published ahead of the fifth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion, the US has worked its way towards offering Ukraine security guarantees if it is prepared to abandon the remainder of Donbas.
The core problem is that withdrawal would require Ukrainian forces to move onto "unprepared and indefensible terrain," Watling wrote. Any collapse of a ceasefire during implementation would leave Ukraine "in a much-weakened position militarily."
At the same time, Washington's rhetoric towards Europe and its National Security Strategy has "undermined confidence that these guarantees would be honoured." Kyiv is essentially being asked to give up key defensive positions in return for promises it has no reason to trust.
For Zelensky, such a deal would be "a hard sell" domestically, the analyst stressed. Ukraine is therefore likely to fight on and must demonstrate to Russia that it can sustain resistance over an extended period if the Kremlin is to abandon its hope of exhausting Ukraine.
See also how Zelensky rejected territory-for-peace deals, warning that Putin will not stop.