George Friedman, founder of Geopolitical Futures, declared that European nations deliberately maintain the image of a "Russian threat" to compel the United States to remain their security guarantor. He called it a "psychological game."
Friedman laid out this position on the Geopolitical Futures podcast devoted to analyzing the 2026 Munich Security Conference, "Hvylya" notes.
"Russia is not the Soviet Union. Not just in the sense that it's not a communist country, but in the sense that it has lost significant territory," the analyst emphasized. He recalled that Central Asia and the South Caucasus - former parts of the USSR - became independent states, and the US is increasingly expanding its presence in these regions.
Friedman stressed: if Russia failed to capture Ukraine, it cannot attack NATO. "Europeans love to talk about the 'Russian threat' and constantly remind everyone about it, even though in reality, if Russia couldn't take Ukraine, it can't take NATO," he said. As we previously reported, a surge in Russian casualties has stalled Moscow's hopes for a breakthrough.
When European interlocutors argued about "what Russia might become in 10 years," Friedman fired back: "What will you become in the next 10 years? You have 10 years. Figure it out." Meanwhile, Russia's oil output continues to shrink under US sanctions pressure.