The United States appears to be weeks away from launching a sustained bombing campaign against Iran, geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan told the Superpowers podcast. The volume of military force being moved into the region points to a prolonged operation, not a one-off strike.
As "Hvylya" reports, Zeihan explained that the Trump administration's demands amount to strategic surrender for Tehran: no missiles capable of reaching Israel, zero uranium enrichment, and no funding for paramilitary groups across the region. "This is Iran's strategic policy. If they agree, they knowingly condemn themselves to being a backwater satrapy," he said.
Zeihan noted that this has effectively been the US position since the Islamic Revolution - the idea that Iran's missiles, nuclear program, and proxy networks must go. "From Iran's point of view, they can't go. So we're finally reaching the point where someone is willing to call the other on the carpet and have a throwdown."
The analyst outlined what a conflict could look like. Iran's oil export lifeline - Kharg Island, an isolated facility in the Persian Gulf not connected to the mainland - could be taken out "in five minutes." That alone would cut 90% of Iran's export earnings overnight, crippling its ability to fund militias across the Middle East. "The US is now the world's largest exporter of refined products. We export more gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel than Iran has ever produced in crude," Zeihan said, dismissing energy disruption fears. One analyst has characterized the current US strategy as an "Anaconda" approach, rapidly closing the perimeter around enemies including Iran.
The nuclear program, however, is a different story - hardened and dispersed, it cannot be destroyed from the air. But Zeihan suggested the current administration might take a more extreme approach: "If you hit every technical university - and remember, this is a very different administration with a very different view of human life - you can set Iran's technological base back to the 1940s in a couple of months."
Zeihan warned of a historical pattern: before 9/11, bombing Middle Eastern targets carried no domestic political cost for American presidents. The danger is that chaos breeds fringe groups capable of asymmetric attacks. "America has a habit of forgetting. It appears we're back in the 1950s, starting this cycle all over again." The shifting global security landscape was a central theme at this year's Munich Security Conference, which described the world as being "in a state of disruption."