Several months before February 24, 2022, the United States and Great Britain possessed accurate data regarding Russia's planned full-scale assault on Kyiv. However, European politicians and the Ukrainian leadership refused to believe the warnings until the very last moment.
Political analyst Yuriy Romanenko provided a detailed analysis of the political elite's failures and the successes of Western intelligence agencies, drawing on a new article published by The Guardian.
During his broadcast, the political expert quoted key passages from the Western journalists' material, which confirmed what had long been discussed behind the scenes: the Ukrainian authorities were warned of the impending catastrophe but deliberately chose a strategy of denial.
Romanenko noted that American (CIA) and British (MI6) intelligence services had unprecedented access to the Kremlin's plans. From late October 2021, they clearly articulated the threat of a full-scale offensive that would extend far beyond the Donbas. At the same time, Europeans demonstrated complete blindness.
"This is a story of an impressive intelligence success, but at the same time, several failures. Firstly, the CIA and MI6 correctly predicted the invasion scenario but failed to accurately forecast its outcome... An even more serious failure was that of the European intelligence services, which refused to believe in a full-scale war in 21st-century Europe," the expert read from the article.
European distrust was partially based on the negative experience of 2003 regarding erroneous data on Iraq. As the publication quotes US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan: "I felt that the evidence we presented was exhaustive, we hid nothing... They [the Europeans] were simply convinced that it made no sense."
The most dramatic aspect of the article is the description of the reaction from Ukraine's top political leadership. According to the material, the government was completely unprepared for the strike.
"Most importantly: the Ukrainian government turned out to be absolutely unprepared for the looming blow. President Zelensky brushed off increasingly insistent American warnings for months, considering them fear-mongering, and suppressed the concerns that arose at the last moment within his own military intelligence leadership," the investigation emphasizes.
American officials, including Eric Green, personally flew to Kyiv in the fall of 2021 to deliver alarming CIA memorandums but were met with skepticism. Due to this political stance, some Ukrainian military and intelligence officers were forced to begin preparations on their own.
"In the end, they made limited attempts at preparation behind his [the President's] back... The political leadership simply refused to accept it until the very end," Romanenko stated.
Special attention in the material and Yuriy Romanenko's commentary was given to the then-head of the SBU, Ivan Bakanov. The expert described his role in those events as comical, given his lack of experience and fatal naivety.
The publication quotes Bakanov himself: "Before joining the SBU, I also thought that you could negotiate with the Russians... But when you see every day how they try to kill and recruit people, you realize they have a different plan. That they say one thing and do another."
Summarizing, Romanenko emphasized that the tragedy of the war's first days was the result of the rigidity of both European and Ukrainian elites: when something falls outside their comfort zone and imagination, they tend to consider it impossible, leading to the loss of precious time and human lives.