In a single New York Times interview, Donald Trump offered two mutually exclusive visions for Iran's future: regime troops surrendering their guns to the people and democracy flourishing - or a Venezuela-style deal that keeps the regime structure intact. Anne Applebaum called this incoherence the defining feature of Trump's foreign policy.
As "Hvylya" reports, Applebaum dissected Trump's shifting positions on the To The Contrary With Charlie Sykes podcast.
The democracy scenario collapses under basic questions, Applebaum argued. "It's not clear who are the people, to whom would they surrender? He's implied if they do this, they'll get immunity. From whom would they get immunity? Who would protect them?" No American troops are on the ground, and while Iranian opposition movements exist, none has consolidated into an alternative elite ready to govern.
The Venezuela model fares no better. Iran's theocratic regime derives its legitimacy from God, not elections. "This is not a regime in which you would easily find people who could do a deal with the Great Satan," Applebaum said. Leaving a weakened regime in place after mass civilian casualties is "a recipe for instability."
Behind both scenarios, Applebaum identified the same engine: a president who sees foreign policy exclusively through his own interests - business, political, or psychological. "He's ultimately a nihilist," she said. "He doesn't have a deep strategy. He doesn't really have an ideology. He does have these instincts and things that he's liked and disliked for a long time." His decades-old resentment of Iran, his desire for a relationship with Russia, his tariff obsessions - all are personal fixations being played out on a global stage.
The traditional policy process that once served as a brake on presidential impulse has vanished. No deputies presenting outcomes, no interagency review, no intelligence community input. Decisions flow from conversations with Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, or Benjamin Netanyahu. "There's nobody saying, yes, Mr. President, but have you considered what would happen if you do this," Applebaum said. "Which is how monarchies work. But it's not how the American presidency has worked."
Also read: A Month of Silence: Friedman Reveals the Real Reason Trump Delayed the Strike on Iran