Brent crude has surged well past $100 per barrel - up from the mid-to-low 60s just weeks ago - as the US-led campaign against Iran effectively shuts down one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints. Gen. David Petraeus, former CIA director and former commander of US Central Command, said the economic consequences are only beginning to unfold.
Petraeus laid out the scale of the disruption in remarks at CSIS covered by "Hvylya". Twenty percent of the world's crude oil and 20 percent of the world's liquefied natural gas flow through the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. "The fact that it's not moving right now is of increasing concern," he said.
The damage extends well beyond pump prices. Petraeus noted that surging crude costs ripple through fertilizers, aviation fuel, and "all kinds of other uses of crude and also natural gas." West Texas Intermediate has tracked Brent upward, meaning American consumers face steep increases at the gas station - but so does global agriculture, shipping, and manufacturing.
The naval dimension remains unresolved. The US has destroyed over 40 Iranian ships, but Petraeus said mini-submarines, speedboats, and other small craft still pose a threat. Escorting tankers through the Gulf and the Strait "may be needed sooner rather than later," he said, given the sustained price spike.
The oil shock also complicates the broader strategic picture. Petraeus warned that Russia, despite being a target of proposed new sanctions backed by 90 US senators, is enjoying a windfall from elevated energy prices. The very campaign designed to weaken one adversary is generating revenue for another - a dynamic that Petraeus said makes passing those sanctions even more urgent.
Also read: Against the Strait of Hormuz Nightmare: Saudi Arabia Activated a Quiet Insurance Policy