China would like to help Iran. It has some degree of affinity for Tehran, just as it does for Russia and North Korea. But Gen. David Petraeus said Beijing is stuck - trapped between its sympathies and its interests, with no viable path to supporting Iran without blowing up things it cares about far more.
The core constraint is energy, Petraeus said in a CSIS assessment covered by "Hvylya". The bulk of China's oil comes from the opposite side of the Gulf - from the very states Iran is attacking. Beijing "certainly cannot be seen as providing weapons to Iran for use against the Gulf States or even American bases on their soil," he said. China is "essentially offering rhetoric but not much else."
A second constraint is diplomatic. Both Washington and Beijing want a summit to go forward in Beijing within roughly a month, with the prospect of a follow-up meeting later in the year. Petraeus said both sides "are being fairly cautious in what they say and what they do." The US has delayed announcing a $12-plus billion arms sale to Taiwan to avoid derailing the meeting, and China is showing "some degree of similar restraint."
This mutual caution carries strategic significance beyond the summit itself. Petraeus pushed back against the argument that the Iran campaign creates a window for Chinese aggression in the Taiwan Strait. Some analysts have suggested this is "China's moment" - that the US is distracted and burning through missile interceptors. Petraeus said the summit dynamic "will mitigate the risk of that very considerably."
Still, the broader "axis" of US adversaries is under enormous strain. Petraeus assessed that Russia is hemorrhaging in Ukraine with over 1.3 million casualties, Iran is under sustained bombardment, Venezuela lost Nicolas Maduro, and Cuba is being "partially asphyxiated" without Venezuelan oil. But he cautioned against complacency, pointing to the blocked Strait of Hormuz and surging oil prices as evidence that the adversary coalition can still inflict serious economic damage even while losing on every conventional front.
Also read: "Triple Shock" for China: How Iran's Fall Collapsed Beijing's Shadow Oil Network