During the June 2025 conflict with Iran, Israel came dangerously close to losing its ability to intercept ballistic missiles above the atmosphere. Stocks of Arrow 3 anti-ballistic missile interceptors — the country's top-tier defense against long-range threats — were running critically low, according to an analysis by defense experts Amos C. Fox and Franz-Stefan Gady.
As "Hvylya" reports, citing Foreign Policy, the near-depletion of Arrow 3 stocks forced the United States to rush additional missile defense assets to the region, including guided missile destroyers armed with SM-2, SM-3, and SM-6 interceptors, as well as ground-based THAAD systems.
The numbers tell the story. Iran launched 631 missiles during the June 2025 war, with around 500 reaching Israeli airspace. Israel claimed an 86 percent interception rate, but achieving this required firing vast quantities of expensive interceptors. Without Arrow 3, Israel would lose the ability to neutralize threats above the atmosphere, leaving less time for terminal-phase interceptions and exposing the country to far greater risk.
The campaign cost Israel hundreds of millions of dollars daily and forced the nation into a wartime lockdown — an unsustainable economic strain. Fox and Gady describe the June 2025 war as proof that "even the most technologically advanced versions of precision warfare cannot eliminate the attritional nature of modern military conflict."
The analysts warn that the current U.S.-Israeli strike campaign against Iran faces the same vulnerability. Iran is deliberately attempting to saturate allied air defenses, having already fired more than 1,200 missiles and drones in the first 48 hours. If interceptor stockpiles reach critical levels again, the attackers will face a stark choice: continue the campaign with degraded defenses or halt operations short of their objectives.
Also read: Iran Struck Six Gulf States in Retaliation - and May Have Just Lost Its Last Allies