The U.S.-Israeli strike campaign against Iran faces a fundamental problem that no amount of technological superiority can solve: the attackers may run out of air defense interceptors before Tehran capitulates. This assessment comes from Amos C. Fox, a professor at Arizona State University's Future Security Initiative, and Franz-Stefan Gady, an associate fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

As "Hvylya" reports, citing Foreign Policy, the two analysts warn that Washington and Jerusalem are burning through hundreds of millions of dollars per day while Iran pursues an attritional strategy designed to drain their interceptor stockpiles.

The scenario is not hypothetical. During the June 2025 conflict, Iran launched 631 missiles, with around 500 reaching Israeli airspace. Although Israel claimed an 86 percent interception rate, achieving this required firing vast numbers of interceptors, placing enormous strain on both Israeli and U.S. stockpiles. Israel's Arrow 3 anti-ballistic missile interceptors were running critically low, forcing Washington to rush additional missile defense assets to the region.

Fox and Gady argue that the operational theory behind the current campaign — precision strikes quickly taking out Iranian air defenses, command and control, and missile launchers — is premised on speed. The attackers "do not want to find themselves trapped in an attritional slugfest," the analysts write. But Iran has already fired more than 1,200 missiles and drones during the first 48 hours of the war, deliberately attempting to saturate allied air defenses.

The core problem, according to the authors, is that 21st-century precision-guided munitions are too slow and expensive to produce in quantities needed for a prolonged campaign. Once stockpiles run out, it is unlikely the attackers can keep fighting at the same intensity. "Israel, the United States, and their regional allies may have the clock, but Iran has the time," the analysts conclude.

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