After U.S. special forces captured Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro in early January, Trump told reporters that "Cuba is ready to fall." The statement fueled speculation about a potential military operation against the island. But according to a Foreign Affairs analysis, the odds of a Maduro-style mission in Cuba remain low.
As reported by "Hvylya", analysts Rut Diamint and Laura Tedesco argue in Foreign Affairs that two key factors work against military intervention. First, after the Venezuela operation, a similar ouster "would no longer have the advantage of surprise." Second, Cuba's security forces are "generally believed to be more loyal to their regime than Venezuela's were to theirs."
History reinforces the point. Cuba has a track record of repelling U.S.-backed operations. The 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion - in which 1,400 U.S.-backed exiles attempted to overthrow the communist regime - ended in a rout that actually bolstered Fidel Castro's international standing as a leader against U.S. imperialism.
Instead of military force, Trump appears inclined to pursue political change through negotiation and diplomatic pressure. Last week, he floated the idea of conducting a "friendly takeover" of the island - a phrase that suggests economic and diplomatic leverage rather than boots on the ground. His administration has already opened backchannel contacts with the Castro family through Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Still, Trump remains difficult to read. The analysts note he "has advertised his belief in using military force against dictators" and has signaled Washington's clear desire to establish hegemony in the Western Hemisphere. The rapidly escalating conflict in Iran could delay his decision on Cuba - or he may see a rapid dismantling of the Cuban dictatorship as "a much-needed foreign-policy win."