Two advanced U.S. radar systems destroyed in the opening strikes of the Iran war will take years to replace and require materials that China overwhelmingly controls, according to a new Payne Institute analysis.
As reported by "Hvylya", the AN/FPS-132 radar in Qatar and the AN/TPS-59 radar in Bahrain were both knocked out during the conflict's first phase. Researchers at the Colorado School of Mines estimate that rebuilding them will cost over $1.1 billion and take between one and eight years - and that is before accounting for material sourcing challenges.
The AN/FPS-132, a large phased-array early warning radar built by Raytheon, will require five to eight years and approximately $1.1 billion to replace. The AN/TPS-59, a Lockheed Martin tactical radar, will need at least 12 to 24 months and an estimated $50 million to $75 million based on the original Bahrain Foreign Military Sales contract adjusted for inflation.
But the researchers said the timeline and cost are not the most alarming part. The "biggest issue for the defense industrial base," they wrote, will be sourcing the 77.3 kilograms of gallium needed for both systems - a material for which China controls 98 percent of global supply. Replacing the radars also requires 30,610 kilograms of copper, a commodity already facing surging demand from the technology sector.
The loss of these high-value assets illustrates what the analysts called a problem "where the total weight of the mineral bill is less of a concern than the extreme fragility of the supply chain and the extensive timelines for replacement." Unlike munitions that can theoretically be mass-produced, these radars are bespoke systems built on production lines that do not idle in standby mode - they must be reactivated, restaffed, and resupplied from scratch.
Also read: "Destroy and Degrade": Colby Reveals the Exact Military Objectives Behind Operation Epic Fury