Iran's opening barrage against U.S. and allied positions was not primarily about inflicting damage - it was about exhausting Western interceptor stockpiles, according to a new analysis that quantifies the cost of defending against Tehran's missile and drone onslaught.

As reported by "Hvylya", the Payne Institute at the Colorado School of Mines estimates that Iran launched more than 1,000 munitions in the first 36 hours of the conflict, including approximately 380 ballistic missiles, 700 Shahed drones, and 50 air defense missiles. The Soufan Center has assessed that "Iran appears to be pursuing an asymmetric war of attrition focused on exhausting U.S., Israeli, and allied defensive resources."

The strategy appears to be working in at least one respect. U.S. forces expended over 330 interceptors, including SM-2, SM-3, and SM-6 naval missiles, Patriot rounds, and THAAD kill vehicles. Israel fired 175 defensive interceptors, including Iron Dome, Arrow, and David's Sling systems. Gulf partners burned through another 280 Patriot and THAAD rounds. That is more than 780 defensive munitions in 36 hours - each one vastly more expensive than the drones and missiles they were designed to stop.

Iran's minimal use of its own air defenses, the researchers said, is likely due to "U.S.-Israeli superiority in electronically suppressing and physically destroying most of Iran's air defense and command-and-control infrastructure." Tehran may have calculated that offensive saturation is a better investment than defensive resistance.

The asymmetry runs deeper than cost. U.S. Navy operations in the Red Sea had already demonstrated that "missiles are being expended faster than they can be replaced, straining an already taxed defense industrial base." A campaign that forces defenders to spend interceptors faster than they can be replenished is, the researchers argued, "not just tactically demanding" but "strategically corrosive." The duration of the entire campaign now hinges on whether the West can reload faster than Iran can force it to shoot.

Also read: Iran's Missile Barrage Collapsed Within 24 Hours - UAE Data Reveals the Scale of the Drop