If Iran and Venezuela end up ruled by regimes friendly - or at least not hostile - toward the United States, Washington will have neutralized two oil exporters that have been a near-constant source of supply disruptions for decades. Russia would remain the only adversarial oil power with significant clout, and even its influence would be diminished.
As "Hvylya" reports, citing a Wall Street Journal analysis by Greg Ip, the scenario in which both countries shift away from hostility toward Washington would be "a game changer for world energy security and geopolitics."
Iran has disrupted oil markets almost continuously since its 1979 revolution - through its war with Iraq in the 1980s and years of sanctions over its nuclear program. Venezuela added its own pattern of instability, from the 2002 oil strike to sanctions during Trump's first term. Without such threats, the entire world would benefit from less volatility and a lower "geopolitical premium" embedded in oil prices.
Both countries had long been reliable allies to Russia, helping Moscow dilute American influence globally. Now Russia faces losing both partners - plus the prospect of their returning oil output cutting into Russian sales. With Arab-Israeli relations slowly warming, normalization between Iran and the U.S. could mean "the end of Middle East conflict as a constant threat to the global economy," Ip writes. Military assets devoted to the region could shift to the Indo-Pacific.
The WSJ analyst cautions this remains "a scenario, not a forecast." Extraordinary downside risks persist - from the Iranian regime surviving without making concessions to civil war. Even a peace deal would require an ongoing American military commitment to ensure compliance.
Also read: Not Democracy: Foreign Affairs Analyst Reveals the Most Likely Outcome of Iran's Power Vacuum