Cuba's seven-decade revolutionary model is running out of time. Cut off from foreign oil, battered by blackouts and shortages, and facing mounting U.S. pressure, the regime's survival in its current form looks increasingly untenable. But what replaces it will almost certainly not be democracy.

As "Hvylya" reports, Foreign Affairs analysts Rut Diamint and Laura Tedesco present a blunt assessment in their latest analysis: "The least likely outcome of all is a democratic transition." Even if economic liberalization generates growth and reduces poverty, it would privilege stability over political pluralism.

The structural obstacles are formidable. Whoever holds power in Havana will need to accommodate large segments of the old party-state bureaucracy and the armed forces, "whose cooperation will be essential for short-term stability and governability." Even if broad segments of Cuban society demand a decisive break with socialism, the dominant bureaucratic, academic, military, and media elites would fight to preserve their influence.

The opposition offers no alternative center of gravity. With most political opponents abroad or in jail, "there is now no obvious leader for Cubans to rally around." The country's political landscape after nearly seven decades of one-party rule simply lacks the structures, leadership, and civil society infrastructure needed for democratic governance.

The pattern is not unique. Cuba already demonstrated in 2008 how apparent change can mask continuity. When Miguel Diaz-Canel became president in 2019 - the first leader in 60 years without the Castro surname - it appeared to signal a generational shift. Instead, Diaz-Canel proved to be a "handpicked hard-liner" who declared at the UN: "The generational change in our government should not mislead the enemies of the revolution - we represent continuity, not rupture."

The analysts' conclusion is stark. Cuba will transition from a revolutionary state to a post-revolutionary one "that lacks a clear new identity." U.S. pressure will drive the transformation, but the result will be instability and continued restrictions rather than freedom. The revolution's final chapter is being written - but the next book remains unwritten.

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