Foreign Affairs: Beijing "Not Opposed" to Regime Change in Iran - What China Really Wants

China would not stand in the way of regime change in Iran and is prepared to work with whatever leadership emerges after the U.S.-Israeli strikes, according to a new analysis published in Foreign Affairs. Beijing's priority is ensuring that Iran remains a viable economic partner, making it fundamentally "regime agnostic" on the question of who rules in Tehran.

As "Hvylya" reports, citing an analysis by Yun Sun, Director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, Beijing has grown deeply disillusioned with the Iranian leadership's domestic failures, military weakness, and strategic inconsistency. That disillusionment now shapes China's entire approach to the current conflict.

According to Sun, if the U.S. and Israeli attacks "curtail Iran's rogue military ambitions and the country repositions itself as an economic power in the Middle East, it could represent a future that China embraces." Beijing has already concluded that the Islamic Republic's power and revolutionary credentials are "both overstated" - Iran's GDP is less than 90 percent of Israel's and only 25 percent that of Saudi Arabia, despite having a population ten times that of Israel.

Chinese leaders are also skeptical of the regime's internal cohesion. Israel's ability to infiltrate the Iranian security apparatus during the 12-day war in June 2025 - targeting military leaders and nuclear scientists - suggests to Beijing that "many Iranian officials don't trust their system and are willing to sell out their country." A state whose own officials lack faith in it holds little strategic value in Chinese calculations.

The upcoming Trump-Xi summit at the end of March adds another layer of restraint. Beijing does not want a Middle Eastern conflict to derail the prospect of a grand bargain with Washington that could ease eight years of great-power competition. China's diplomatic response to the current strikes has been notably measured - the harshest language from the Foreign Ministry was reserved for condemning the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, not the overall campaign.

If the regime collapses quickly, Sun writes, Beijing "is unlikely to dwell on such an outcome." China has already lost faith in the Islamic Republic's leadership. What matters now is figuring out how to work with the next power holders to keep oil flowing from the Middle East.

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