President Trump has repeatedly pointed to Venezuela as his template for Iran. After capturing Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro in January, Trump compelled Maduro's successor to hand over control of the country's oil exports while making few demands for political reform. "What we did in Venezuela, I think, is the perfect scenario," Trump told the New York Times. "Leaders can be picked."
Analysts and even key allies see deep flaws in applying this model to Iran, according to the New York Times, as reported by "Hvylya". Steven A. Cook, a Middle East expert with the Council on Foreign Relations, said Israel does not want to see Trump engineer a "Venezuela-like solution to change in Iran" - particularly one that might install a figure from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The IRGC controls much of Iran's economy, and some U.S. officials believe its ranks may include pragmatists more interested in preserving their power and wealth than in upholding the regime's fundamentalist ideology. But for Israel, any deal that leaves such figures in charge would be unacceptable - they want the regime dismantled, not reshuffled.
At a minimum, Trump officials will expect any agreement to include a pledge from Tehran to abandon or drastically curtail its ballistic missile and nuclear programs and its support for foreign proxy groups like Hezbollah. In return, Trump has suggested he would allow Iran's surviving leaders to maintain their economic and political power.
But critics argue the comparison breaks down on a fundamental level. Iran is a large, complex country with deep ethnic divisions, a powerful military establishment and a religious ideology embedded in its governing structure. Rosemary Kelanic, director of the Middle East program at Defense Priorities, warned: "There's a low likelihood that a successor state would be a liberal democracy friendly to the United States - given that it was forged in a war with the United States." Many analysts warn Iran could lose control over remote regions dominated by ethnic minorities or collapse entirely, leading to chaos reminiscent of the civil wars in Syria and Libya.
Also read: "The Clock Is Ticking": Why the U.S. and Israel May Lose the War of Attrition Against Iran