Russia has enough strategic autonomy to launch an attack on NATO's eastern flank without China's permission - and Lithuania is the most likely target, Polish strategic analyst Piotr Kulpa warned. The assessment marks a sharp departure from the Russia-Ukraine dynamic, where Moscow lacked the sovereignty to end the war without Beijing's consent because the conflict served Chinese interests.

In an interview with "Hvylya", Kulpa explained the logic. The war in Ukraine worked in China's favor - it drained Western resources, fractured the transatlantic alliance, and made Russia increasingly dependent on Beijing. China had no interest in stopping it. But a Russian strike on NATO's eastern flank is a different equation. "Such a war would not frighten old Europe," Kulpa said. "It would lead to the formal collapse of NATO, because it would become obvious to everyone that nobody helps anyone."

Lithuania stands out as the primary target for several reasons, according to the analyst. The country had previously refused to recognize Beijing as China's capital, instead recognizing Taipei - a position the new Lithuanian government has since walked back, calling it a mistake. But Kulpa views this as a "tertiary issue." The real calculus is strategic: a strike on Lithuania, particularly around the Suwalki corridor connecting mainland NATO to the Baltic states, would deliver maximum disruption with manageable risk for Russia.

The critical outcome Putin seeks is not territorial conquest but diplomatic leverage. A strike on the eastern flank would make Trump the de facto negotiator for a paralyzed NATO, shifting the conversation from Ukraine alone to Russia's role in Europe's security architecture. "The war against Ukraine in 2021 was planned as a geopolitical war aimed at restoring Russia's place as a security guarantor in Central Europe," Kulpa said. "The war in the Middle East significantly increases the risk of a Russian strike on NATO's eastern flank."

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