Russia can do nothing about the US-Israeli strikes on Iran except talk. George Friedman, founder of Geopolitical Futures, delivered a blunt assessment of Moscow's position: a country so drained by the war in Ukraine that military intervention anywhere else is simply impossible.
Speaking on the Talking Geopolitics podcast, as reported by "Hvylya", Friedman described Russia as a power that has "pretty much isolated itself."
"As a military force, given its showing in Ukraine, given the exhaustion of its forces, that they are now drafting 50-year-old men, that they are recruiting mercenaries in Africa to fight with them, they are taking students out of college to join the army - they are not in a position to launch a major offensive in the Middle East," Friedman said.
The weakness runs deeper than battlefield losses. The collapse of the Soviet Union stripped Russia of Central Asia and the South Caucasus. "This is a greatly weakened country," Friedman said. "It wants to play the great power but certainly doesn't have any military capability of intervening here." His summary was cutting: "When you can't intervene, make speeches."
Friedman also noted that the strikes could further damage Russia economically. If the Iranian regime changes and Iranian oil returns to global markets in greater volumes, oil prices could drop - hitting Russian revenues. At the same time, Russia has already "lost many of its markets during this war," limiting its ability to benefit even from potential price spikes.
The situation extends to Iran's supply chain as well. A regime change could cut off the flow of Iranian drones to Russia - a lifeline for Moscow's operations in Ukraine. Friedman did not dwell on this point, but the implication was clear: the strikes on Iran may weaken Russia's war effort by eliminating one of its few remaining military suppliers.
Also read: "Do Not Mess With Us": The Real Message Washington Sent to Moscow and Beijing Through Iran