Ukraine's most realistic path forward is to make the war effectively futile for Russia - not through a single breakthrough, but through a cumulative strategy that compounds pressure across military, economic, and technological domains. Michael Kofman outlined this optimistic scenario in a Foreign Affairs podcast episode marking the war's fourth anniversary.
As "Hvylya" reports, Kofman argued that the strategy is feasible given current trends and Ukrainian capabilities. Read the full interview on our website.
The plan has several pillars, Kofman explained: stabilize the front and hold Russia to incremental gains, increase Russian casualties beyond recruitment capacity, regain superiority in the drone engagement zone, scale existing solutions to protect critical infrastructure from Russian strikes, and expand Ukraine's own strike campaign against Russian energy export infrastructure to raise costs. Ukraine has already been hitting strategic targets deep in Russian territory. Combined with Western economic pressure, these factors could force Russian decision-makers to confront the war's unsustainability over the course of the year.
"I think that's feasible," Kofman said. He noted that Ukraine is seeking an acceptable end to the war, hoping to secure the rest through negotiations - not necessarily a single round. Over the past year, Ukraine has substantially narrowed its political aims relative to military means and what is achievable, while still preserving "a fairly good position if the war ends with prospects for the future." The war has also been expanding at sea, with Ukraine targeting Russia's shadow fleet to cut export revenue.
At the same time, Kofman warned against complacency. There are no game changers in a conventional war, he stressed. "The things that truly change the game are changes in operational concepts, force structure, and organizational capacity," not a singular technology. He also cautioned that wars are inherently unstable systems: "Transitions are gradual, then sudden. Who knows what the fighting will look like three or six months down the line." But given current trajectories - rising Russian costs, stagnating Russian gains, and tightening economic constraints - the conditions for making the war untenable for Moscow are within reach.