Multiple European research institutions have quietly completed studies on what it would take to build a credible NATO defense without the United States — and the numbers, while staggering, are not beyond reach. The most comprehensive estimate, published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies last May, puts the rough cost at $1 trillion spread over a quarter-century. A parallel study by the Bruegel think tank in Brussels and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy concluded that Europe would need at least 300,000 additional troops and an immediate annual spending increase of $290 billion to deter Russian aggression, The New York Times reported.
The planning has accelerated because of a specific deadline. Gen. Carsten Breuer, the head of Germany's armed forces, has warned that by 2029 Russia will most likely be able to mount a serious conventional attack on NATO territory. European military officials say the existing command infrastructure would remain intact even if Washington withdrew its 70,000 troops from the continent, and European officers could fill most of the positions currently held by Americans.
Camille Grand, a former NATO assistant secretary general for defense investment, has authored his own detailed assessment of the gaps Europe would need to close. Trump administration officials have suggested that Europeans should take over conventional defense while Washington retains its nuclear umbrella — a division of labor that European capitals are increasingly treating as a baseline assumption rather than a worst-case scenario.
The conversation gained urgency after President Trump threatened to leave the alliance again on Wednesday, frustrated that European nations refused to join the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran. Secretary of State Marco Rubio amplified the pressure last week, warning that relations with NATO would need to be re-examined once the Iran war ends. Poland's foreign minister, Radoslaw Sikorski, offered perhaps the most pragmatic European assessment of the challenge ahead: Europe does not need to match American military power — it only needs to be stronger than Russia.
Earlier, "Hvylya" analyzed how the "America First" doctrine has been dismantling the alliance system that kept global peace for decades.