George Friedman, chairman of Geopolitical Futures, has warned that the most dangerous consequence of the Strait of Hormuz closure is not rising oil prices but a fertilizer shortage that threatens the northern hemisphere's spring planting season.
On the Geopolitical Futures podcast, Friedman told host Christian Smith that natural gas - a critical component in fertilizer production - has emerged as the real center of gravity in the economic fallout from the US-Iran war, "Hvylya" reports.
"What I didn't realize at the beginning of the war is that it's not going to be oil per se that's the critical thing, but natural gas, because that's a major component of fertilizer," Friedman said. "If in the northern hemisphere we don't have enough fertilizer to plant food, that's going to be a major problem."
Smith cited an interview with an Australian farmer who reported having only a quarter of the nitrogen fertilizer supply needed for the coming season - a situation reflected across a country that produces a significant share of global grain. UK analysts project supermarket food prices will rise by up to 8 percent.
Friedman argued that reopening the strait by military force is far harder than it would have been a decade ago. In the past, marines could land on both coasts, push Iranian forces back 30 to 50 miles, and secure passage. But drones have erased that option. The strait's position is fixed, ships spend hours transiting a narrow channel, and no insurer will cover a vessel moving through a corridor where drones can strike from positions well beyond any ground perimeter.
"Even if we were to take the area and rapidly deploy anti-drone systems there - do you take an incredibly valuable ship with necessary products and push it through there, seeing it sink, and now block the straits again?" Friedman said.
Also read: how the Iran war has dealt a triple economic blow to Egypt by choking Suez Canal revenue.