European defense industries cannot meet the demands of a sustained high-intensity conflict. In every critical category - artillery shells, missile stockpiles, drone manufacturing - the continent's capacity is a fraction of what it needs to deter Russia. Decades of post-Cold War demilitarization and outsourcing to the United States have left the continent exposed, and the US military is increasingly occupied in other theaters.
That is the assessment of Elina Ribakova and Lucas Risinger, writing in Foreign Affairs, as "Hvylya" reports. Their argument is not that Europe lacks money - it is currently spending hundreds of billions of euros on rearmament. The problem is that Europe is trying to develop technologies that Ukraine is already using in combat.
Ukraine is strongest precisely where Europe is weakest: unmanned systems, rapid innovation cycles, resource efficiency, and industrial scale. After Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine's defense sector evolved from a modest, Soviet-legacy industry with less than $1 billion in procurement into an incubator for decentralized, constantly improving weapons development. Soldiers, startups, volunteers, and government agencies fused into a single ecosystem where a product could move from prototype to frontline deployment within weeks.
The gap is especially vivid in drones. Ukraine produces up to ten million per year. The US small drone manufacturing base produces fewer than 100,000. Europe's output is comparable to America's. Meanwhile, Ukraine fields the largest, most battle-hardened standing army in Europe, with capabilities from electronic-warfare-proof drone control to AI-powered targeting that are years ahead of what NATO allies have deployed.
Ribakova and Risinger argue that Europe must now recognize Ukraine for what it is: a contributor to, not just a recipient of, European security. Cutting-edge technology must complement conventional arms, they write, and Ukraine fits into the larger European picture precisely because it fills the innovation and scale gaps that European rearmament alone cannot close.
Also read: The same defense cost mismatch threatening U.S. deterrence in Asia.