William Burns has said that Iran's nuclear dash toward a weapon remains a genuine concern even after the extensive damage inflicted on its nuclear infrastructure during the ongoing war. The regime retains over 400 kilograms of 60 percent highly enriched uranium and the scientific know-how to attempt building a crude nuclear device.
Burns made the remarks in a Foreign Affairs podcast interview on April 1, as reported by "Hvylya".
The former CIA director said the nuclear threat had already worried him during his final years at the agency. The intrusive verification and monitoring mechanisms established under the 2015 comprehensive nuclear agreement had largely atrophied after the first Trump administration withdrew from the deal in 2018. Without inspectors on the ground, detecting a dash toward a weapon became significantly harder.
"If you decided to make a determined effort to build a crude nuclear device, you still have the know-how to do that and you still have a significant amount of 60 percent highly enriched uranium," Burns said. He noted that while US and Israeli intelligence would have "a fair chance" of detecting such an effort, the absence of ground-based inspectors complicates the picture.
Burns added that prior to the war, there was no evidence that the Supreme Leader had reversed his 2003 edict to pause Iran's weaponization program. But the post-war leadership, though diminished, is likely to be more radical and less predictable - raising the stakes of any future nuclear decision.
Rebuilding Iran's full nuclear infrastructure from the damage already sustained would be a significant undertaking. But the material and expertise for a crude device remain intact, and the question of whether this more radical leadership would pursue that path is one Burns said could not be answered with certainty.
"Hvylya" also covered why Iran's deterrence collapse has made nuclear weapons more attractive to aspiring states worldwide.