George Friedman, chairman of Geopolitical Futures, has dismissed the idea of a commando-style raid on Iran's nuclear facilities, arguing that such an operation belongs in Hollywood scripts, not in serious military planning.
On the Geopolitical Futures podcast, Friedman noted that the successful capture of Venezuelan president Maduro was "extraordinary and lucky" - and that replicating it in Iran is a different proposition entirely, according to "Hvylya".
"This is not a movie, and it doesn't have that wonderful scene where the Marines or the Delta Force comes in," Friedman said. The Venezuela operation succeeded because it was a surprise against a government that did not fully anticipate the manner of attack. Iran, by contrast, has been on high alert since the war began and fields a sophisticated military force specifically prepared to repel such operations.
Scale compounds the problem. Iran is two and a half times the size of Texas. A raiding force of 20, 30, or even 100 operators would face entrenched Iranian defenders who know the terrain. Friedman also questioned whether American intelligence on the location of Iran's nuclear material is reliable enough to guide a raid. "Are they moving it around in various ways to drive us crazy?" he asked.
Instead of a surgical strike, the US has opted for a strategy of economic isolation - accepting the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and betting that the world economy can withstand the pressure longer than Iran can. "We always have to remember why the war began," Friedman said. "It began with a fundamental national security issue for the United States as well as Israel."
Earlier, "Hvylya" examined why Iran's fractured opposition lacks the leadership and structure to challenge the regime from within.