For decades, Iran built diplomatic leverage around its nuclear ambitions. Western capitals obsessed over centrifuge counts and enrichment levels. But over the past month, as the U.S. and Israel pressed their military campaign, Iranian officials stopped talking about uranium. Their focus shifted to a different asset entirely: the Strait of Hormuz.

Vali Nasr, a professor at Johns Hopkins University and former senior State Department official involved in informal discussions with Iranian representatives, told the Wall Street Journal that the nuclear program "was symbolic, but didn't provide them with any deterrence," "Hvylya" reports. Iran's thinking, according to Nasr, is that the strait must remain under its control at any cost - it is Tehran's sole source of both leverage and revenue.

The logic is straightforward. Before the war, over 100 vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz daily, carrying roughly one-fifth of the global oil supply. Iran has reduced that to a handful, using drones, missiles and fast attack boats to enforce its blockade. The few ships that do pass take detours through Iranian waters and sometimes pay Tehran directly for the privilege.

Whether the war ends as a success or defeat for Iran depends first and foremost on whether Tehran emerges still holding the strait - and with it, the keys to worldwide energy markets. Hasan Alhasan, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, warned that an outcome that leaves Iran in control would mean "indefinite Iranian leverage over the Gulf states' economies and over global energy security."

Analysts warn that any Iranian bid to hold the strait permanently would face resistance far beyond the Gulf. Dozens of countries - from major Asian importers to African and Latin American economies - depend on the waterway for energy and trade. A post-war Iran that insists on controlling Hormuz would find itself not stronger, but more isolated than ever.

Earlier, "Hvylya" reported on how Iran's deterrence collapse has other states reconsidering the appeal of nuclear weapons.