Chinese public opinion has turned decisively against Iran, with netizens openly mocking Tehran's military responses as theater while the government maintains a carefully neutral posture toward the ongoing U.S.-Israeli strikes. The gap between China's measured diplomacy and its public contempt for Iran tells a revealing story about Beijing's real assessment of its partner.
As "Hvylya" reports, Stimson Center analyst Yun Sun writes in Foreign Affairs that Chinese netizens have derided Iran's military actions as "performative retaliation" - a label that stuck after repeated episodes where Tehran's response to attacks fell far short of its rhetoric.
The pattern goes back years. When the United States assassinated Qasem Soleimani in 2020, Iran's retaliation against U.S. bases in Iraq was seen as underwhelming. When Israel struck the Iranian embassy in Syria in 2024, the response was similarly muted. The 12-day war in June 2025 was the breaking point: Iran gave advance warning to Qatar and the United States before launching missiles, a move Chinese analysts found disproportionately weak.
Prominent Chinese opinion leaders have echoed the sentiment. Hu Xijin, one of China's most visible pundits, publicly lamented the situation facing Iran and its people - but placed the blame squarely on Tehran's leadership for leading the country into its current predicament. This represents a significant shift: China's opinion shapers are no longer defending Iran's strategic choices, even in the context of the U.S.-Israeli campaign.
The Chinese government has been more diplomatic but no less telling. The Foreign Ministry's official response this week condemned the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei but stopped well short of condemning the overall bombing campaign. Its call for "relevant parties to stop military operations" was carefully worded to address Iran as well as the United States and Israel. Beijing's vocal support for the "sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity" of Gulf states - plural - signaled that China is hedging its bets across the region, not rallying behind Tehran.
Sun notes that pessimism about Iran's fate "is now baked into Chinese assessments of the Middle East." From Chinese online forums to elite policy circles, the consensus has hardened: Iran's revolutionary image was a bluff, and Beijing sees no reason to prop it up.
Also read: Not Israel or the U.S.: WSJ Reveals Who Really Wins From the Iran Strike