China's interest in Iran is "first and foremost about energy security" - and Beijing is fully prepared to sacrifice the Islamic Republic's survival to protect it, according to a new analysis published in Foreign Affairs. The calculation is blunt: oil flows from the Middle East matter far more to China than who sits in power in Tehran.
As "Hvylya" reports, Stimson Center analyst Yun Sun writes in Foreign Affairs that more than 55 percent of China's total oil imports in 2025 came from the Middle East, with approximately 13 percent from Iran itself. Most of this oil must pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway bordered by Iran. This dependency - not ideological solidarity - drives Beijing's Middle East policy.
China has diversified its energy mix significantly. Renewables surpassed oil to become China's second-largest source of energy consumption after coal in 2025. But oil remains irreplaceable for fueling jets, powering ships, and producing petrochemicals. China holds an estimated 1.3 to 1.4 billion barrels of oil in reserve - roughly 30 percent of its 2025 imports - enough to weather a short-term disruption but not a prolonged one.
This is why Beijing is "regime agnostic" on Iran. If the U.S. and Israeli attacks topple the Islamic Republic and whatever comes next keeps the oil flowing, China will adapt. Sun notes that if the regime collapses quickly like that of Bashar al-Assad in Syria or stabilizes rapidly, Beijing "is unlikely to dwell on such an outcome." The emotional attachment to Tehran's revolutionary government is essentially zero.
The one scenario that would force Beijing's hand is a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. China could turn to alternate suppliers - Russia currently provides more than 17 percent of Chinese oil imports - but Beijing fears overreliance on any single source. Chinese oil executives have long dismissed the possibility of a long-term strait shutdown, arguing that a global energy crisis would trigger a collective solution. That assumption is now being tested in real time.
Also read: From 3.2 to 6 Million Barrels: The Hidden Oil Giant Waiting Behind Iran's Regime Change