The US-Israeli military operation against Iran has produced a clear loser - the Islamic Republic - but the biggest winner may be an unintended one. Historian Niall Ferguson has identified Russia as the chief beneficiary of the conflict, reaping dual advantages while its adversary Ukraine pays the price.
Ferguson presented his analysis on the GoodFellows panel at the Hoover Institution, alongside economist John Cochrane and former National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster, as reported by "Hvylya".
The mechanism is straightforward. With Iranian oil effectively off the global market and the Strait of Hormuz disrupted, the world needs alternative crude supplies. "We've had to ease sanctions on the Russians, make it possible for the Indians to buy Russian oil," Ferguson said. Moscow gets a double benefit: higher prices and looser restrictions on its exports.
Ukraine, meanwhile, takes the hit on the other end. "Ukraine's access to air defense systems was already compromised. They need them desperately because they're attacked nightly by Russian missiles and drones," Ferguson said. The Patriot interceptors Kyiv has been requesting are now earmarked for the Gulf. "Ukraine can say goodbye to any sophisticated air defenses like the Patriots, because those are going to the Gulf if they're going anywhere."
McMaster acknowledged this dynamic but framed it within a larger strategic picture. The "axis of aggressors" has had "a terrible 12 months," he argued, pointing to Xi Jinping's 2023 boast to Putin that they were "driving changes" the world hadn't seen "in 100 years." McMaster's assessment: "They're not in the driver's seat anymore." But Ferguson's rebuttal was pointed - "there are ways in which the big players in that axis, Russia and above all China, are not necessarily beaten here."
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