The prospect of a landmark meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at the end of March is actively shaping Beijing's decision to stay out of the Iran conflict, according to a new Foreign Affairs analysis. China views the summit as an opportunity for a potential grand bargain that could end eight years of bruising great-power competition - and is unwilling to let Iran get in the way.
As "Hvylya" reports, Stimson Center China Program Director Yun Sun argues in Foreign Affairs that Beijing "does not want a war in the Middle East to derail its effort to work with Trump." This calculation helps explain why China's diplomatic response to the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign has been strikingly restrained.
The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs' official remarks this week called on "relevant parties to stop military operations" - a formulation that pointedly includes Iran alongside the United States and Israel. Beijing also voiced support for the "sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity" of Gulf states, signaling that China is working to stay on good terms with countries across the region, not just with Tehran.
This restraint reflects a deeper strategic shift. Beijing has grown increasingly disillusioned with Iran since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel. Chinese strategists have lost confidence in what they see as Tehran's tendency to capitulate to Western demands rather than fight back. Iran is "stuck between its opposition to the United States and its need to reach a deal with Washington," Sun writes, leaving it an unreliable partner in Beijing's eyes.
The calculus is straightforward: a détente with Washington offers China tangible economic and strategic benefits that dwarf anything the relationship with Tehran provides. Beijing has already signaled it is prepared to work with whatever government emerges in Iran after the strikes. The regime in Tehran, once seen as a foothold for Chinese interests in the Middle East, has become expendable.
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