The 25-year, $400 billion strategic cooperation pact that China and Iran signed in 2021 - once heralded as a cornerstone of their partnership - has effectively collapsed, with few of its envisioned projects ever materializing. A new Foreign Affairs analysis explains why Beijing barely seems to care.
As "Hvylya" reports, Stimson Center China Program Director Yun Sun writes in Foreign Affairs that the pact stalled because of Tehran's own resistance. Iran feared that "China's influence would compromise Iranian sovereignty and independence," blocking the very projects designed to deepen the partnership. The result left Beijing frustrated with what it sees as Tehran's "inconsistency and unreliability."
The failure of the pact reflects a broader Chinese reassessment. Beijing has concluded that Iran's power is fundamentally overstated. Despite a population ten times that of Israel and three times that of Saudi Arabia, Iran's GDP is less than 90 percent of Israel's and only 25 percent of Saudi Arabia's. In Beijing's view, Iran used proxy warfare to create an illusion of strength that "inflated its capacity and disguised its internal weaknesses."
Chinese frustration also extends to Iran's political contradictions. According to analysis by Niu Xinchun, executive director of the China-Arab Research Institute at Ningxia University, the Iranian regime's Islamic ideology "precludes compromises with and concessions to the United States on political and nuclear issues." Yet a better relationship with Washington is the fundamental precondition for Iran to develop economically. This leaves Iran trapped - and from Beijing's perspective, paralyzed as a partner.
The domestic picture deepened the disillusionment. Beijing's policy community focused on the Middle East sees "bad decision-making, rampant corruption and poor governance in Tehran," Sun writes. Israel's successful infiltration of the Iranian security apparatus during the 12-day war confirmed Chinese suspicions that the regime's own officials have lost faith in the system. For Beijing, a partner whose elite is willing to sell out the state is not worth defending.
Also read: Not Democracy: Foreign Affairs Analyst Reveals the Most Likely Outcome of Iran's Power Vacuum