There is only one scenario that would push China off the sidelines in the Iran conflict: a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz that cuts off more than half of Beijing's oil imports. Everything else - including the survival of the Iranian regime itself - is negotiable, according to a new Foreign Affairs analysis.

As "Hvylya" reports, Stimson Center analyst Yun Sun writes in Foreign Affairs that Beijing is actively "pressuring Tehran to keep the Strait of Hormuz open and avoid taking any measures that could disrupt energy shipments." More than 55 percent of China's oil imports pass through the narrow waterway, making it the single most critical chokepoint for Chinese energy security.

Chinese oil executives and Middle East experts have long dismissed the possibility of a prolonged strait closure. Their argument: shutting down the waterway would trigger a global energy crisis, forcing a collective solution to emerge quickly. During the 12-day war in June 2025, Chinese analysts dismissed the prospect of Iran closing the strait because it would "antagonize the whole Gulf and undercut Iran's own revenue." Beijing has used this logic to resist domestic calls for building a Chinese military presence in the region.

But that assumption is now being tested. China holds an estimated 1.3 to 1.4 billion barrels of oil in reserve - enough for a short-term disruption but insufficient for a long one. If supplies are threatened, Beijing could increase purchases from Russia, which already provides more than 17 percent of Chinese oil imports. However, Sun notes that Beijing "is uncomfortable with overreliance on any single supplier because it fears another major disruption."

An even bigger trigger would be a protracted war in which Iran survives and fights back effectively. If Tehran "abandons its capitulation tendency, fights back, and survives, it would be difficult for China to stand aside and withhold assistance," Sun writes. In that scenario, Chinese support could mirror what Beijing has provided to Russia in Ukraine: dual-use technologies, drone supplies, oil purchases, and technological support for Iran's defense industry. The longer the regime holds out, the more China would feel compelled to step in - potentially prolonging the conflict further.

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