Ukrainian political analyst Yuriy Romanenko analyzes the 28-point US peace plan for Ukraine and Russia. How the draft is connected to Mindichgate, why Europe wasn't consulted, what awaits Zelensky, and how to avoid repeating the mistakes of the Second Republic after the war.
Context of the Draft's Emergence
After Zelensky met with Dan Driscoll, the US Army Secretary who came literally today, the president stated he was ready to cooperate on a peace plan. What has now been outlined is the architecture, not the final version. Obviously, since Ukraine and Europe saw this plan for the first time, it proceeded without them. Witkoff and Dmitrov had been meeting over the last several weeks and coordinating it.
There were also disputes in the States about how this architecture should look to not miss out on anything. Therefore, the White House preliminarily, before these points appeared, made a statement calling it incorrect to understand the agreements on Ukrainian settlement as unilateral territorial concessions.
Driscoll, who met with Zelensky, is optimistic about the meeting's outcome. Trump wants the conflict in Ukraine to stop, but he's concerned about the behavior of both the Ukrainian and Russian sides. Media already reports that the States insist the conflict end as quickly as possible.
As one diplomat stated: "If you've been watching Trump, you should understand that when it comes to an aggressive timeline — these are strict deadlines on his terms. This means right now, this means as soon as possible."
Connection to Mindichgate
Obviously, Ukraine is the weaker party and is under stronger pressure. All this haste with which NABU dumped all these Mindichgate flows on Zelensky seems connected to this. Such turbo-mode, as we've already said, wasn't very desired by NABU detectives themselves, who understood there was a lot of raw material, but they had to dump it all.
NABU was in conflict with Bankova, and it began squeezing NABU's leadership. But the architecture of twenty-eight points indicates that these were still interconnected things, and it was necessary to find an argument that would make Zelensky more compliant. And it seems this succeeded.
Epitaph of the Second Republic
These twenty-eight points and all subsequent events that will be, and everything that will happen in three months, in six months — this is an epitaph on the body of the Second Republic dying in this fire of war. This is an epitaph to human stupidity that permeates all the politics of the second Ukrainian republic. It led us to this altar on which Ukraine has been crucified today.
We must now draw the right conclusions from this so that worse scenarios don't repeat themselves in the coming years.
Analysis of Key Points
Let's go through the points. I'll read and reflect as I go, because I'm seeing all this for the first time too and piecing the situation together immediately.
Point one. Ukraine's sovereignty is confirmed, but Kyiv enshrines non-aligned status and NATO rejection in the constitution. When Poroshenko introduced NATO and EU provisions into the Constitution, everyone who was thinking straight was twirling their finger at their temple. Now we're coming to what was obvious to any person who thinks straight.
Ukraine's sovereignty is confirmed through Ukraine's rejection of what it would like in the face of most of the elite and the absolute majority of the population. That same moment: "I have the ability, I have the desire, but I don't have the ability" or "I have the ability, but I don't have the desire." Many of us forgot this simple truth, and now it's happening by force.
Generally, what's happening with these twenty-eight points and the imposition of such a format, when there's no preliminary coordination with Ukraine and Europe — this indicates that we reached this situation ourselves. We didn't offer a realistic plan for exiting the war. All our wishful thinking, expectations that Biden would win instead of Trump, that a meteorite would fall on Russia and it would disappear with its problems like dinosaurs sixty-five million years ago — all this shows it's better to think straight and look at reality.
Even if it's very frightening, you need to have your own arguments, your own plans on the table and participate in developing such points. And not like Czechoslovakia. This all reminds me of the unfortunate Beneš and Hácha in thirty-eight, when they were dividing Czechoslovakia. While Hitler, Chamberlain and Daladier were negotiating in Munich, Czechoslovakia's leadership sat and waited to see how its fate would be decided. In such a key, in such a format, this document was developed.
Point two. The AFU's numbers are limited, the country remains non-nuclear. That we're non-nuclear is obvious. The key question — what numbers for the AFU? It's absolutely clear that eighty thousand people, which the Russians requested at the war's start when the Istanbul track began, is unacceptable for Ukraine.
Two hundred fifty thousand, which was by the end of negotiations in Istanbul, is more acceptable for Ukraine. I think the number of 250-300 thousand people would be optimal for Ukraine and, most importantly, the limit for its destroyed economy. These are enormous expenses, and it's completely obvious that Ukraine cannot and is unable to maintain any million-strong army. Therefore there will be a battle for these points, what numbers.
Point three. Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk de facto pass under Russia's control, but legally remain Ukrainian. I think this point satisfies us for the reason that it actually allows not recognizing the territorial changes that occurred during Russian aggression. Trump and his administration pushed this through, and for us it's not bad.
Point four. The front in Zaporizhzhia, Kherson oblasts is frozen, part of the territory turns into a demilitarized buffer zone. Apparently, we're talking about troops being withdrawn from there from both our side and theirs.
Point five. Borders cannot be changed by force. A good point. I think no one will dispute it, from our side at minimum and from Europe's side.
Point six. NATO doesn't deploy troops in Ukraine, but alliance fighters are based in Poland. A dialogue format of USA, NATO, RF is created, as well as a US-Russian security group. It's unclear what they invented, because alliance fighters are already based in Poland. Maybe we're talking about their numbers increasing, but considering Trump's general drive for economy, obviously not at the expense of the American component in Europe. It's unclear what they'll radically change here.
Point seven. Russia legally fixes non-aggression on Ukraine and Europe. Probably that's good.
Financial and Economic Aspects
Point eight. The US and EU launch Ukraine's reconstruction for two hundred billion, including frozen Russian assets. A development fund is created, part of the profit from assets is distributed to the US and for joint projects with the Russian Federation.
A murky point. If there aren't any clear obligations regarding Ukraine receiving this money, considering the budget crisis in the EU and problems in the States — this is some murkiness. A development fund is created, part of the profit from assets is distributed to the US. Obviously, this is the fund we've already created. And possibly, it will be filled through joint projects with Russia or for joint projects with Russia.
Point nine. Gradual lifting of sanctions and Russia's return to the G8 with development of US-Russia trade. This is understandable. Russia promoted this agenda in every way. It's logical that if it achieves reduction of sanctions, it can record this as an asset.
Humanitarian Issues and Denazification
Point ten. Exchange of prisoners and deportees all for all, children's return program, humanitarian initiatives and a formal condition — rejection of Nazi ideology. This is obviously that same denazification. Honestly speaking, I don't understand how it can look. I think this is the point, as in Istanbul, that will be sacrificed first.
Energy
Point eleven. ZNPP under IAEA control, its electricity is distributed 50-50 between Ukraine and Russia. The US restores Ukrainian gas infrastructure.
I think there also needs to be added that the US will enter this Ukrainian gas infrastructure, taking control of Naftogaz in some form. Possibly, a consortium will be created through which all this will be managed. And possibly, the US will buy, American companies will buy Russian gas at the border and then supply it to Europe and have corresponding margins.
Political Consequences
Point twelve. Elections in Ukraine one hundred days after signing. A broad amnesty is announced.
This is an interesting point. Obviously, a broad amnesty is also about all this vatnik brotherhood that found itself under pressure after the large-scale invasion began. Thus Russians will try to legalize the return to the political field of conditional OPZZh, conditional Medvedchuk — those political forces that could represent their interests.
Honestly speaking, it's also hard for me to imagine how this will look in reality, for them to start pushing for the Russians. But obviously, Russians will try to push this through.
Point thirteen. Control over implementation — a Peace Council under Donald Trump's leadership. Sanctions are provided for violations.
Point fourteen. After signing — immediate ceasefire and withdrawal of troops to agreed positions. This is a typical condition for ceasefire, I don't see anything special here.
Reactions of the Parties
This leak was preceded by a bunch of leaks in the Western press. Elements of these points were just flowing in a stream. Different publications were leaking separate moments. This says that Americans were probing the ground and watching what reaction to one variant, to another variant, and accordingly, through publications were spreading reactions.
Considering that President Zelensky officially received the settlement plan project from the American side, I think he should announce this publicly tomorrow and say which of these twenty-eight points are fake, which are not fake. Or maybe they're all real, because now he has all the cards in his hands.
Europeans are in shock against this background. "We weren't informed about this," German Foreign Minister Johan Wadephul told journalists. In this context, it's interesting that today news appeared that Merz promised to equip the Ukrainian army with long-range weapons systems. This is an attempt to make a good face in a bad game.
How It Was Developed
Politico wrote that authorship is attributed to Steve Witkoff, that it was developed without consultations. According to two officials and a number of people in the White House and State Department who should have been informed about this plan — they knew nothing about it. The same applies to Lindsey Graham, a US senator who often came here. He also said he heard nothing about this plan.
There was no interagency coordination. People who communicate in Washington say there's no interagency coordination not only regarding Ukraine, but regarding many other issues. Trump in the context of his struggle with the deep state concentrated all real policy in his hands and in the hands of those people he trusts. Therefore many officials really aren't aware of what's happening in the White House.
Brits also write that Britain wasn't informed about new peace proposals, despite close relations between national security advisor Jonathan Powell and Witkoff. However, in London they don't consider this plan something serious.
An official from one of the defense departments told the publication that there's a group in the White House that has long believed Europeans sabotage the peace process, so they weren't involved in discussions.
Ukraine's Position
The plan was compiled by Witkoff and other American officials in consultation with Russians. A Ukrainian official told Axios that Zelensky was more conciliatory during the meeting with Driscoll. "The solution is to try to work on this together to make peace possible."
The Trump administration tried to assure Ukraine and European allies that the plan is a living document and that their positions will be considered. Actually it's a draft.
When the large-scale war began, Russians rolled out to us a draft of Istanbul agreements that was much worse than what it was by the end of negotiations that were then happening directly between Ukraine and Russia. Therefore there's no need to panic.
But of course, for many this will be the destruction of all ideas that the West will help us, that the West will hold our position to the end.
The question of long-range weapons for us is one of the key ones, because it will directly determine the corridor of our subjectivity. If we, as in Budapest, are forced to accept the condition that we won't have long-range weapons, then the war's end for Ukraine will look sad. Because subjectivity will in fact be limited.
Internal Political Crisis
While Witkoff is developing a draft with the Russians, a corruption scandal begins in our country against the backdrop of strikes on energy that's gradually going out. And, miracle of miracles, the corruption scandal is tied to the energy issue — not to defense, where there's even more embezzlement, but specifically to energy, so everyone understands what it's about.
Ukrainian authorities find themselves with their balls in a vice, because they're terrified that people might come out to Maidan. When Barabash announced "come out to Maidan," for several days the security forces were shaking. It was clear how much they fear maidanization.
Whoever controls the tempo of releasing this compromising material and corruption case plots determines the depth of the fall, the speed of the fall, and the problems that will rain down on Zelensky's political regime.
All this indicates that these were still interconnected things, and it was necessary to find an argument that would make Zelensky more compliant. And it seems this succeeded.
Meeting with the Faction
Zelensky, to the horror of his comrades in the Cabinet of Ministers, in the political force "Servant of the People," yesterday behaved as if nothing had happened, that everything was under control. Those concessions they wanted to get from him, they didn't get from him. Yermak's replacement — because discussions about this were already going on in the party.
Today a meeting between the faction and Zelensky took place. Goncharenko was leaking what they talked about. Yermak and Arakhamia sat in the presidium. No one was spitting at anyone. Arakhamia's presence is important because Arakhamia acts as their party organizer, and Arakhamia has his own mini-faction in "Servants of the People."
Two deputies raised the question that Yermak should go. One such question was raised by Maryana Bezuhla. Zelensky answered her, literally quoting: "Are you fucking crazy? Fuck off." Well, the general message is clear. Then he said that no one's going anywhere, we have difficult negotiations ahead, so we're working. And that's where they dispersed.
As of yesterday, Zelensky was ready to sacrifice Svyrydenko and the government, but the key problem is they simply don't have people. No one wants to go into government because everyone understands it's kamikaze, and there's absolutely nothing to catch there.
The key question is trust and viability of the strategy that Zelensky will now present to the party. For him the key question is how not to lose trust.
The attempt to drag out time will end with them being blackmailed, new tons of compromising material being poured out. I would consider NABU's statement that they're suspending dumping this compromising material in connection with martial law in such a context, that a negotiation process is going on, that if you take a step right, step left — we start lashing further with new facts.
Prospects for Power Transit
For Zelensky, the optimal option would be transit through a new coalition, power transit. He could calmly leave and say that I'm a statesman who thinks about the country's future, it's important not to allow loss of control and shift all subsequent problems onto the government up to signing the peace agreement.
Possibly, in his place I would even resign so as not to sign it, and say that I fought as I could, due to powerful pressure I didn't succeed, so whoever can — do better. And then this weak coalition that appeared instead of him would have all the responsibility shifted onto it and onto the president, who will be the speaker.
Hindenburg and Ludendorff did exactly the same two months before World War I was lost. They returned the political component to the management of the Second Reich specifically to shift responsibility for defeat onto politicians.
All the sentiment that was after World War I in Germany was based precisely on this. Hitler's appearance and the Weimar Republic's collapse — all this was connected precisely with these steps, because the army looked like a force that fought to the end. And politicians simply betrayed when they signed the armistice in the Compiègne Forest.
This is the logic that Zelensky should have had to step aside and then try either to return to power or simply survive.
But by the logic of what the president is doing, it doesn't seem he'll try to crawl away. As Khomiak said, giving an analysis of the president's psychological portrait, that Zelensky doesn't belong to those figures who will make such complex maneuvers and will rather cling on to the end.
Why Putin Is Going for This
Against this background, many ask: why would Putin go for this? Well, because Putin probably also doesn't have the best situation. Putin is also under pressure from his circumstances.
Moreover, Putin basically gets not the worst situation in terms of the layout both inside the country and outside. You can negotiate with Americans. Lift sanctions either immediately, well, not all, but a significant part, launch energy projects, try to negotiate with Americans about the Arctic and still maneuver with China.
Ukraine, if it's also castrated by restrictions on the army and long-range weapons, and considering the possibility of amnesty for vatniks and an explosive political situation inside after the war, he understands perfectly how he can play on this situation.
If Ukrainians don't get their heads together and start building their state taking all mistakes into account. Because everything we're discussing is a consequence of thirty-five years of mistakes: from Kravchuk, through Kuchma, Yushchenko, Yanukovych, Poroshenko and to Zelensky, when the elite simply didn't want to think about elementary things that any person with reflection thinks about.
One Russian analyst two-three weeks ago spoke very well when Russian media began pumping the agenda about why the war needs to end. He spoke about the salami strategy. He said: "Look, Ukraine is a very complex question. Look how we solved it in the seventeenth-eighteenth century when we conflicted with Poland. We didn't get Ukraine under control immediately, we got it over a hundred fifty years when we started butting heads with the Poles."
Therefore now too we must understand that we don't have enough resources. Moreover, literally quoting, that "God forbid Trump tightens the screws and rolls out such energy sanctions that we'll simply collapse." For them this is an acceptable corridor they can go down, even if the conditions that were listed are imposed.
Comparison with the 1919 Versailles Peace Treaty for Germany
Some Ukrainians are already saying these conditions are times worse than what was imposed on Germany after World War I. Nothing of the sort. I disagree.
Germany paid enormous reparations after World War I that it couldn't pay without additional lending. No reparations will definitely be imposed on Ukraine.
Very substantial restrictions regarding the army were imposed on Germany — it couldn't have dreadnoughts, couldn't have submarines, couldn't have combat aviation, couldn't have an army above one hundred thousand people. Such architecture isn't yet visible here.
Again, we're still speaking in assumptions, and I think that in the next two-three weeks this will become clear. It will become clearer what these points might be more specifically.
Armistice and Election Schedule
Elections will be in a hundred days. But first martial law must be lifted. If martial law is lifted in February, then count elections in a hundred days.
The plan I spoke about two or one and a half weeks ago was this: reach armistice conclusion at Christmas, Orthodox Christmas, January seventh. Then in February no extension of martial law, and then, accordingly, at the end — somewhere mid-June, end of June, beginning of July — elections.
The persistence with which this provision about elections was pushed through says that both Trump and Russians want Zelensky to leave. Therefore this entire election agenda was constantly pushed through and they're not dragging it out.
What to Do After Armistice
Europe looks ridiculous now. Of course, as ridiculous as we do. Because to lose so many people, to break so many lances, to push out so many Ukrainians abroad as a result of all this corruption policy, as a result of large-scale war, to lose territories, when it was possible, simply by engaging reason, to avoid many problems and not come to such a pathetic state.
But again, let's look at things realistically. What do we have at the current moment? The key question isn't what we'll sign there, whether it will be in those accents that outlined these agreements or not.
But what will we do on the very first day after the cannons stop booming? What will we do? Will we grab each other by the hair and start fighting about whether it's mova or not mova? Or will we start thinking about how to move the military-industrial complex secretly, possibly into underground tunnels under mountains.
And start building the factories we need, without attracting unnecessary attention, without the usual statements that "we're going to do this here, and here we did that, and here we did this." And then several rockets fly there.
All this bullshit must be left in the past, because generally the entire history of the Second Ukrainian Republic is how not to live. And our entire history is how not to act and how not to live by finished values that allow burying hundreds of thousands of people in graves for nothing.
Historical Lessons
When I hear screams that after this peace they'll throw us and Russia will attack us again, I always think: if Atatürk had been — watching all this, listening, would the Turkish Republic have turned out as powerful as it is today?
Imagine: the capital is occupied by Entente troops. An occupation corps is in Istanbul. In the west Greeks captured entire provinces. Italians in the south. Kurds in the east, Armenians are rebelling. Soviet Russia looms, though they later negotiated with Soviet Russia, it gave weapons.
In Central Anatolia Turks gather, remnants of bureaucracy, remnants of the army. They gather and begin an offensive. And then in the Sakarya River valley in 2022 they defeat the Greeks and throw out all the occupation forces that were on the territory of modern Turkey.
Yes, they lost eighty percent of the Ottoman Empire. Lost the empire? Yes, they lost it. But they defended independence. They created a new state, having no resources in the modern understanding.
They were even deprived of coffee, which they traditionally drank. Do you know how tea appeared in Turkey? Atatürk, understanding they were cut off from coffee beans, sent an entire expedition to India for tea. They began planting tea plantations in the Rize area, and in several years they specially created a cult of tea consumption in Turkey.
There had to be — the problem needed solving. And people instead of sitting, suffering bullshit: "How will it be?" — they solved problems.
What to Do
I'm sure I would advise the authorities to hold a referendum on all this. So the Ukrainian people express themselves, they want, well, outline the peace track, outline conditions. And then the authorities can sign anything, proceeding from the people's will, which of course should be honest, without cheating.
No one will open borders before elections. Because they understand the consequences perfectly.
You simply need to stop suffering from idiocy and build the right life in Ukraine so that, having those enormous resources of wonderful people who live in our country, to live in your own country and not be finished cattle that sells everything for a pinch of tobacco.
Don't lose hope, don't lose dignity, primarily because all this shit we found ourselves in, because people who ruled us all these years, they simply didn't have elementary dignity of their human to themselves and to others, as a consequence.
The entire history of the Second Ukrainian Republic is how not to live. It's better to think straight and look at reality, even if it's very frightening, in order to have your own arguments, your own plans on the table and participate in developing such points and participate in your own fate.
While there are hundreds of thousands, millions of patriots in our country who, despite everything, love this country, lay their lives, their time, their efforts, their relatives, loved ones, money and everything else on its altar — this country still has the opportunity to drink something more worthy.
A country in which people respect each other can never be defeated. Because no enemy can break a people united by a common idea and common values, and the desire to live together. And if the kingdom, as the Bible says, is divided, then it will definitely fall.