The Kremlin has been "taking control" of Pokrovsk and Kupyansk twice a week since August, and not because things are going well.
With each passing day, the question becomes more acute – for what? Why all this? They urgently need some victories.
The acuteness is connected with the overlay of two trends that are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
1. The first trend is tactical.
The popularity of the war among the Russian people is conditioned, among other things, by quite prosaic reasons.
Calculations by various economists demonstrate that at the end of 2022, the real incomes of dear Russians began to grow, which continued in 2023-2024 and the first half of 2025.
Some have thin soup, others have small pearls. But one way or another, 65-75% of the population was covered by income growth.
Directly – through various indexations, raises, payments. And indirectly – through the wage race in war-adjacent sectors of the economy, which spurred personnel expenses everywhere. That is, at least 2/3 materially benefited from the war.
Naturally, there were also victims. But firstly, they are arithmetically fewer. Secondly, among them are many relocants, foreign agents and other unstable elements who can't be pleased anyway. They can be neglected.
The working-fighting class won, bureaucrats, in various proportions – groups of budget workers, then pensioners were pulled in. That is, the social base of the regime was fed.
Plus Moscow and St. Petersburg were flooded with money, where historically the most spoiled and ungrateful population to the authorities resides.
But in the second half of 2025, this celebration began to gradually wind down. Moscow will feel this trend last, but ordinary citizens on the periphery will feel it in full measure starting January 1.
To the rise in prices and taxes will be added a rise in utility tariffs and various levies. Moreover, some types of robbery of the broad masses are openly structured in favor of those who cannot be offended. Because it's scary.
Thus, an article in Kommersant caused a lot of noise, from which it follows that the increase in electricity tariffs may be connected with the need to cover the debts of energy suppliers in the North Caucasus. Where half the energy is simply stolen for mining farms and other purposes.
6 regions of the North Caucasus account for 90% of wholesale debts in the system (63.8 billion rubles or more than $800 million). So, to close them, conscientious consumers throughout the Russian Federation will chip in from tariffs.
This interpretation spread instantly. Despite government justifications, the residue is already there. And there are more and more such examples.
In sum, they fuel the demand that it's time to finish somehow. It's not yet sufficiently manifested, the accumulation of the effect will be around March.
2. The second trend is strategic. It's connected with Russia's prospects for generations ahead. Only before they talked about it abstractly, but now there's more and more specifics. Because refusals of specific projects have begun to fall.
How was the model of beautiful future Russia visualized?
On the one hand, it was assumed that the Russian Federation would dig various valuable things out of the ground and sell them on the premium European market, as well as to China, where prices are lower, but the flow of money still comes.
Some part of these funds would inevitably be invested in something useful and beautiful. Like, a station in Antarctica or ballet.
On the other hand, China would produce various crafts from Russian and other raw materials to sell them on the same European market. For which two routes are being built: "Belt and Road" (land-combined) and "Northern Sea Route". Both are tightly tied to Russian logistics.
In this context, the total defeat of the gingerbread European continent, where there's a lot of money, contradicts the interests of both China and Russia. But intimidating Europe to squeeze out more favorable trade conditions fully corresponds.
If we schematize very roughly, then the essence of the moment is – in whose interests is Russia intimidating Europe?
Russians are convinced they're trying for themselves. In fact, they act as a Chinese proxy.
Trump also gladly uses this option (already now – in terms of weapons, and would like to also nibble at the euro and fill the EU with American goods).
If we discard all sorts of "values," it looks like Moscow, Beijing and Washington have some coincidence.
In these capitals there's an understanding that in the western and northern part of the continent, money is concentrated. And in the central and southeastern – arrogant and haughty peoples beyond their incomes are concentrated.
Therefore, there are no sentiments at all about slightly crushing them. And pushing the rich Pinocchios to fork out money.
Comrade Orban realized this scheme long ago and is trying to capture the niche of the jackal Tabaqui to sell it to any of the three users. So that they would start crushing the Baltics-Poland and the Balkans-Bulgaria-Romania, and he would still monetize.
But here suddenly Ukraine didn't surrender...
3. If "Kyiv in three days" had happened, this would have compensated for Russia's costs and given the opportunity to prepare for a strategic breakthrough – the development of the Arctic. Because due to climate change, the value of currently cold regions will gradually increase. There will be a global battle there.
However, the north of the Russian Federation at the moment is a desert in infrastructural terms. To monetize good starting conditions, colossal investments (money) and time are needed.
In recent years, Russia has somewhat pulled up one element in the Arctic – aviation. Refreshed airfields, created strongholds. On the agenda was a large-scale program for the development of land infrastructure, which contains, conditionally, "colonial" and "sovereign" components.
The colonial part is connected with building logistics in China's interests along the "Northern Sea Route". For this, a certain number of ports and support bases are needed so that Chinese ships, moving to Europe, feel confident.
But for Russia itself, this component brings minimal benefits. Moscow acts as a seller of seeds and chebureks to cruise liner passengers.
A much more profitable part is "sovereign". It consists in building logistics by land to future northern ports from Siberia, from the Far East and from the Urals. To overcome the "bottlenecks" of corridors to the west and east, multiplying the export of the same raw materials.
And here's the most interesting part.
4. Remember, comrade Dmitriev proposed to the Americans to build a tunnel from Chukotka to Alaska? This project was ridiculed (deservedly), but it didn't arise out of nowhere.
On the one hand, Trump, as a developer and responsible grandfather of 11 grandchildren, is concerned about where his family will eat in a generation. Therefore, long-term projects are interesting to him, he can be caught on this.
On the other hand, for about 20 years in Russia, comparable projects have been at low start, which Putin, as an irresponsible grandfather, flushed down the toilet because of his military adventures.
So, to saturate the "Northern Sea Route" not with Chinese, but with Russian cargo, it was supposed to implement two railway construction projects.
The first project is the "Northern Latitudinal Passage". Its essence is to connect by railway branch (707 km) through the territory of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug the tracks of two branches of Russian Railways – the Northern Railway and the Sverdlovsk Railway – from Obskaya station to Korotchaevo station. Plus deploy accompanying infrastructure.
One of the elements of this project was supposed to be a bridge across the Ob River in Salekhard. Because at the moment this city is actually on an island, there's no stable year-round communication with it.
Initially, the Northern Latitudinal Passage was estimated at 236 billion rubles. Even taking into account a threefold price increase – that's only 700 billion rubles. Back in 2021, they wanted to use National Welfare Fund money for this project, but made developing routes to the Pacific Ocean a priority.
And then February 2022 came. In 2025, Putin officially postponed the project completion deadline to 2029. Then moved it "to the right" a bit more – to 2027-2031, but it's already clear now that there's no money and won't be...
Essentially, the Russian leader exchanged for small change a railway and a bridge across the Ob, handed out coins to mercenaries, whom he joyfully buried. Northern logistics are literally dispersed across Russia's cemeteries.
Considering the state of the National Welfare Fund, the problems of Gazprom and Russian Railways (were supposed to become co-investors), other difficulties, the "Northern Latitudinal Passage" dissolved into fog.
The second project is cyclopean, of imperial scale: the North Siberian Railway. Which was supposed to consist of two "rays". The first ray was supposed to connect Nizhnevartovsk (Yugra) with Ust-Ilimsk (Irkutsk region). And the second – through Mountain Altai to reach Chinese Urumqi.
The project cost was roughly estimated at 50 trillion rubles. It was supposed to partially unload the Trans-Siberian Railway, BAM and generally all logistics to Pacific Ocean ports, ensuring cargo flow to the Northern Sea Route. Now the construction of this railway is "not considered expedient".
And without these two railways, Russia simply has nothing to transport in the Arctic for the next 20 years...
Thus, because of the attack on Ukraine, Putin de facto buried the entire component of the "Northern Sea Route" that was supposed to provide Russia with the main margin.
Moreover. Considering that maritime traffic from China through the Bering Strait is only possible with US blessing (unknown drones have already shown how to unofficially impact toxic shipments), Putin doomed the Northern Sea Route to complete dependence on the will of America and China.
And all this – for Pokrovsk City! Now do you understand what a valuable city this is?
5. To somehow "pay off" the fantastic "victory," the Kremlin needs not only colossal external investments, but also a return to the European market.
How are things going with this?
The EU just yesterday decided to abandon Russian gas by 2028. This decision contradicts economic logic, but completely fits military logic: if from 2029 there should be full readiness for war with the Russian Federation, then by the start Europe should not be energy dependent on a potential adversary.
Also yesterday came news about preparations for industrial development of hydrocarbon deposits off the coast of Namibia. Oil supplies to the market are expected from 2030. And Venezuela is also sitting in ambush. And Kazakhstan is also increasing production, which makes the Russian Federation's eye twitch. Israel found something. Turkey found something. Before you know it – they'll build something through Syria...
Total. If we look 5+ years into the future, Putin's stubbornness has led to the fact that Russia simply won't be able to convert its advantages. And will find itself in a maximally competitive environment in the hydrocarbon market.
But the Kremlin now has the ruins of Popasna City and Bakhmut City...
Putin stole the prospect from at least one generation of Russians. He will surely try to continue distracting citizens of the Russian Federation with imaginary and real successes at the front, but they're not even close to comparable with what has already been lost.
Dear Russians, who have less money in their pockets and it's increasingly noisy at night, have begun to look around.
A considerable part of the Russian ruling class is upset by the loss of prospects and reduction to the role of Chinese-American servants. They would like a bigger piece of the pie and a more decent table. But for now they're afraid...
And I haven't touched on security issues around the perimeter of the Russian Federation: the Baltics, Moldova, the South Caucasus, Central Asia.
Only rails and sleepers...
Objectively – Russia needs to stop collecting bloody ruins, get out of the war as quickly as possible, pay Ukraine compensation, judge criminals and fully return to the world economy. Every month counts.
Everything that contradicts this is evil for Russians, living and yet unborn.
And what contradicts this is China's position...