A day after the Russians blew up one of the berths of the CPC marine terminal (there was and still is no confirmation of anything else), an official reaction from Kazakhstan toward Ukraine followed. Well, and our response.
I want to say that I like the level of discussion so far. Kazakhstan reacted on Sunday morning at the level of a statement by an MFA representative. Ukraine responded at the level of a statement by an MFA representative.
On the next round, heads of transport companies or departmental library chiefs could exchange opinions. And preferably – at night. Because escalation of diplomatic reactions is definitely against Kazakhstan's interests.
Let me emphasize again.
Kazakhstan is not perceived in Ukraine as an unfriendly state. Despite CSTO membership and the entire complex of ties with Russia. Because Ukrainians clearly understand the situation the Kazakh people are in.
Moreover – we know with high probability what awaits Kazakhstan in the future, as soon as we fight off Russia. Therefore, the development of friendly and pragmatic relations, as stated by our MFA, is not an empty phrase.
At the same time, Ukraine knows how to work with facts.
The facts are that:
- Russia controls 51% in CPC. This pipeline is under Russian control, call it international three times over;
- 51% is Transneft, Lukoil and Rosneft. All are under international sanctions;
- In addition to Lukoil's shares in projects on Kazakhstan's territory, Russia exports through CPC millions (6-9 million at minimum) tons of oil per year from the Caspian regions of the Russian Federation and the North Caucasus under the Rosneft/Transneft quota. This is 100% Russian oil, not even formally a drop of "international" admixtures;
- All this generates hundreds of millions of dollars in budget revenues for the Russian Federation, from which the war against Ukraine is financed.
Moreover.
Kazakhstan remains one of the main routes for supplying sanctioned goods to Russia to support the war. Not to mention various kinds of "parallel imports" that support the Russian economy. Not to mention transaction infrastructure. The list goes on.
Despite all this, there is absolutely no public demand in Ukraine to cause any harm to Kazakhstan. Conducting dialogue and conveying our position – yes, causing harm – no.
I observe publications in Kazakhstan's media and social networks. Groups trying to heat up anti-Ukrainian hysteria and create discord are visible to the naked eye. This is definitely not in Kazakhstan's interests. If Astana wants to enjoy bonuses from economic interaction with weakened Russia, it will inevitably have to take on the risks of partnership with an aggressor and Russian war criminals.
For now, in Ukraine the focus of public attention is on Akorda's steps toward diversification. But our Kazakh friends must understand.
For example, last night Russia struck residential quarters of Kyiv's suburb – Vyshhorod – three times with UAVs carrying cluster munitions. There are casualties. The only purpose of such munitions is to kill and maim as many people as possible. That is, there's not even a hint of a "military target." This is a conscious war crime by Russia.
Under these conditions, Ukrainian citizens are not in the mood to delve into the nuances of why components for Russian military factories that produce missiles and UAVs come through Kazakhstan, and why one should be tolerant of a Russia-controlled pipeline that pays for military production and mercenaries. The focus can change. I'm sure the Russians will try to make it happen, just as they are now trying to escalate in Kazakhstan.
So it's important to understand priorities.
The clearer Kazakhstan's position on sanctions, the easier it will be to talk about the need to take interests into account. And vice versa.
And Ukraine's MFA is right – we do not hear from Kazakhstan's authorities public condemnation of Russian strikes on peaceful Ukrainian cities. If there is no balance of statements – that is precisely "an action damaging bilateral relations between the Republic of Kazakhstan and Ukraine."
We expect the Kazakh side to take effective measures to prevent similar incidents in the future.
