If the U.S. Congress does not resume funding by the end of March, Ukraine will enter April facing its most severe trial since gaining independence. Speaking on Yuriy Romanenko's program, economist Oleg Ustenko emphasized that in the absence of American money, the government will be forced to take radical steps. Internal resources alone will not be enough to cover a projected deficit of $15-20 billion.
"Plan B always exists, but it is very painful. First, it requires the maximum concentration of internal resources. This means that all expenditures not related to the front line and survival will be zeroed out. This is the very essence of sequestration. But even this will not be enough to close a $15-20 billion hole," the economist explained.
According to the expert, relying solely on the European Union's Ukraine Facility is insufficient, as it covers only a third of the country's needs. While Europe could provide additional bilateral loans, the EU's bureaucratic mechanisms consume too much time—time that Ukraine simply does not have.
"Europe can give more, but they do not want to shoulder the entire burden. Discussions are currently underway in Brussels to allow EU member states to provide direct bilateral loans to Ukraine under EU guarantees. It is a complex mechanism that could work, but again, it takes time. And time is exactly what we lack," Ustenko noted.
Yuriy Romanenko raised the issue of the inevitability of printing more hryvnia if the choice comes down to social unrest versus inflation. However, Ustenko believes the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) will choose a different path.
"Monetizing the deficit is like a drug: you try it once, it feels easier, and then you need more and more until the economy burns up in hyperinflation. The National Bank will hold out until the last moment. They would sooner agree to a devaluation of the hryvnia to increase revenues from customs and exports than simply turn on the printing press," Ustenko stated.
He added that the pressure on the national currency would be "colossal," and without restricting imports to critical items, the foreign exchange market could face the threat of collapse.
"I don't want to cite specific figures to avoid sowing panic, but the pressure on the hryvnia will be immense. If imports are not restricted to critical categories, the currency market will simply collapse," the economist explained.
According to the experts, Ukraine has relied on external support for too long, ignoring the need for harsh internal wartime reforms.
"We believed for too long that aid would be eternal. It was a psychological trap. Everyone relaxed. Now it turns out we must become self-sufficient under conditions where half of our industry is destroyed. This is a challenge no European country has faced since World War II," the economist emphasized.
Yuriy Romanenko compared the situation to living on credit when a bank suddenly cancels all limits. He noted that the state must finally implement elements of a true "war economy," including currency controls, import restrictions, and a real crackdown on smuggling.
The experts agree that April will be the decisive month, revealing the Ukrainian system's capacity for survival.
"April will be the 'moment of truth.' We will either see real reforms and belt-tightening, or the system will spiral out of control. If we make it through April and May without U.S. aid and do not collapse, we will become a completely different country," Ustenko and Romanenko concluded.