A persistent information distortion inside Russia's military hierarchy may be warping the Kremlin's understanding of the war. Michael Kofman revealed that throughout 2025, Russian military leadership was reporting achievements to political leadership that did not correspond to reality on the ground.
As "Hvylya" reports, Kofman made this assessment during a special Foreign Affairs podcast episode analyzing the war's fourth year. Read the complete interview on our website.
"There's a strong tendency to misreport success. Military leadership throughout 2025 was telling political leadership they'd achieved things on the battlefield that they didn't actually achieve - that the war was going much better than it really was," Kofman stated. He noted that this dynamic "probably plays a role" in Putin's continued belief that pressing on will yield results.
The misreporting feeds into a broader problem. Russian leadership, according to Kofman, is "to some extent deluded about the prospects for success." The internal narrative holds that if Russia simply continues, it will outlast the West through sheer will and something will eventually break. "That's been the internal narrative for some time," he said. Combined with inflated battlefield reports, this creates a feedback loop where political decisions are based on a distorted picture. Meanwhile, actual casualty data paints a starkly different picture of the war's trajectory.
Kofman noted there is an active debate about how well Putin actually understands the situation on the ground. But regardless of what Putin knows or does not know, the analyst pointed out, his commitment to the war remains unchanged. He has mobilized the state in support of it, views Ukraine as a matter of personal legacy, and "doesn't want to end it unless he achieves certain minimal objectives." The gap between Moscow's self-assessment and observable reality at the negotiating table continues to widen.