The Trump administration's approach to European security contains a fundamental contradiction: it seeks to reduce America's military presence in Europe while simultaneously expanding security commitments to Ukraine. Michael Kofman argues these two goals are incompatible.
As "Hvylya" reports, Kofman laid out this paradox in a special episode of the Foreign Affairs podcast on the war's fourth anniversary. Read the full conversation on our website.
"What the Trump administration wants to do is, from my point of view, somewhat contradictory. They want to reduce the US military commitment to Europe while expanding the US security commitment to Ukraine. You can't have both," Kofman stated. The administration's belief that Europeans will simply fill the gap does not hold up to scrutiny - European nations are "not in a position to take this over from the United States. Not for themselves, and not for Ukraine either." The Munich Security Conference laid bare the depth of this transatlantic disconnect.
Washington's broader strategy toward Europe is clear, Kofman noted: shift the burden for continental security to Europeans. Ukraine is becoming a subcomponent of that trajectory. But the timing is off. A peace deal, if it does not materialize this year, has a good chance of coming next year - "much sooner than European capability arrives to manage this problem on their own. That is 100% a fair assessment."
On the substance of security guarantees, Kofman said progress has been real. The US may offer an executive or legislative agreement - not quite a treaty, but a significant political commitment. Europeans are assembling a coalition for a security assistance force. But he posed the uncomfortable question that European policymakers were already asking privately in Munich: "Do you really think Europe is going to go to war with Russia over the Donbas?" The US economic plan for Ukraine and Russia adds another layer of complexity. Ultimately, he said, any guarantees are only "as credible as your belief that Donald Trump as president would act on them in defense of Ukraine."